This question is quite good. Before answering, let me mention another issue. Last Tuesday, a big shot I have known for a long time suddenly asked me, from a historical perspective, the price trend in August has not been very good every year. How do I see this August?

I was taken aback when I heard it. My first reaction was that the big shot is still quite superstitious. My second reaction was that the big shot is looking for buying and selling points through probability. My answer was that this time the market pattern is different from previous years. Now, Trump is forcefully extending the life of the United States. I cannot conclude that August will definitely be good or bad, but from my current view of Trump, he still has cards to play before the September interest rate meeting, and he will definitely play them.

After saying this, Trump appointed a temporary Federal Reserve governor, issued an ultimatum to Russia, signed an executive order for 401K to enter the cryptocurrency field, his team gave Waller a sweet deal, reached an agreement on tariffs with the EU, and extended the deadline for China by another 90 days, and had a verbal spat with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The SEC clarified that liquid staking is not a security, and so on.

Moreover, I feel that this is not over yet. Trump still has cards to play. What he wants is support rates; he wants to write a good name for himself in history. So, although my viewpoint is uncertain, I do not believe in blindly seeking answers.

The question from my friend is the same. I believe in the four-year cycle because it corresponds not to halving but to the U.S. elections. I talked about this topic all last year. As for whether October will be the peak, it is hard for me to judge, but I still have some confidence in Trump. If there is a systemic risk, it is likely due to an economic recession. From the current perspective, the probability of a recession occurring in October is not very high.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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