Musalem from the Federal Reserve: Economic activity appears stable, neither rising nor falling at the moment. Bankers report that financing pressures have eased, and credit quality is good. Businesses continue to report a shortage of skilled labor. Companies remain cautious regarding capital expenditures and hiring. Firms are adopting different strategies to cope with tariffs, including cost-cutting and negotiating with suppliers. Companies have not yet reduced costs through layoffs.

Companies that rely heavily on imports are passing on costs, while those closer to consumers are less likely to raise prices so far. The Federal Reserve is currently not meeting its inflation targets, but it has not failed in its employment mission and the labor market is close to full employment. Looking ahead, there is a risk that the Federal Reserve may not meet its targets for both inflation and employment, with employment facing downside risks.

The impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to gradually fade. There is a certain probability of persistent inflation. The labor market is balanced, but economic activity is weaker, posing risks to employment. The inflation boost from tariffs is likely to be temporary.

The Federal Reserve is currently seeking a balance between its two responsibilities. Data integrity is crucial for the economy. Both labor supply and demand are cooling. Growth below potential levels poses risks to the labor market.

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