Good morning, crypto friends ☀️, I am Wang Yibo! I track real-time hotspots in the crypto world daily to help everyone seize the best trading opportunities. Iron fans remember to check in 👍, those who like this will definitely make a fortune this year 🍗🍗🌹🌹
1. U.S. Stocks and Macroeconomics: Rate Cut Expectations Become the Market's Main Line
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed with mixed performance, with the Dow Jones slightly up by 0.18%, the S&P 500 index rising by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq strongly increasing by 1.2%. In terms of individual stocks, Apple (AAPL.O) surged by 5%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose by 3.6%, while AMD (AMD.O) fell over 6%, showing a structural market within the tech sector.
What’s more noteworthy is the Federal Reserve's policy expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in September is only 6.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 93.6%; the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in October has reached 64%. The continuously strengthening expectations for rate cuts inject potential momentum into the risk asset market, and cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility assets, will also be profoundly influenced by this macro logic.
For the crypto market in early August, despite disturbances and uncertainties causing repeated fluctuations, this volatility is essentially a deep washout—the floating capital of mainstream narrative coins has been effectively cleared, market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, and a long-awaited rebound could start at any time. Follow Yibo's real-time analysis to accurately capture turning points.
2. Bitcoin: Highs Encounter Resistance, Short-Term Bearish Outlook
Bitcoin's pace was slow yesterday, oscillating narrowly around 114,000 during the day, and rebounding in the evening with the U.S. stock market opening, peaking at 115,651 before facing pressure and retreating, currently consolidating around 115,000.
From a technical perspective, there are three key signals to be cautious about:
Four-Hour Level High Touching Top Characteristic
: Although there was a large bullish candle, the bullish momentum is constrained by upper pressure, and the upward trend lacks continuity, quickly entering adjustment afterward.
Bollinger Band Pattern Not Broken
: The price did not break the upper Bollinger Band during the rise, indicating that the overall market is still in a range-bound oscillation pattern, without forming a trend-breaking move.
Short-Term Retracement Demand Emerging
: Although the moving average system shows three lines opening upwards, combined with overall structural analysis, the current bullish momentum is insufficient, indicating a clear demand for retracement.
Today's Trading Strategy: Focus on bearish positions, setting up short orders based on the upper pressure level of 115,600-116,000, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 114,000 below; if it breaks, it could further look towards around 113,000.
3. Ethereum: Bullish Pattern Unchanged, Focus on Key Resistance Levels
The Ethereum market overall maintains a bullish pattern, rebounding from a low of 3,572 last night, testing a high of 3,696 before entering consolidation, with solid support below and the 3,720-3,735 range becoming a phase resistance area.
The technical analysis shows two major level characteristics:
Daily Level
: Continuing the previous rebound trend, the price is consistently rising, with bullish momentum accumulating during this period, laying a solid foundation for future movements.
4-Hour Level
: The price is operating near the upper Bollinger Band, continuously testing the upper resistance. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above 3,735, a new round of upward space will be opened; if it falls back after multiple unsuccessful attempts, short-term adjustment risks need to be heeded, with support below focusing on the 3,650-3,620 range.
Today's Trading Strategy: Primarily focus on low bullish positions, with light positions set up in the 3,650-3,630 range, targeting 3,720-3,735; if it breaks through, further upward movement towards 3,800 can be expected; if the rebound is weak, timely strategy adjustments are necessary.
💎 Real-time market conditions change rapidly, and operations must strictly manage stop-losses and control position risks. Follow Yibo to accurately capture direction in fluctuations and get on board precisely when the market starts! 💎
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to stop loss, don’t understand take profit, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck at the bottom, unable to hold profits, missing market opportunities… these are common problems for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profit is worth a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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