Yesterday, Trump expressed that he would select the candidate for Kuggler this weekend. Some friends expect that this candidate could participate in the interest rate meeting in September. However, in reality, even if Trump names someone, a series of approval conditions still need to be met.

I checked that it takes about 3 to 8 weeks from the nomination of a Federal Reserve Board member to final approval, with an average of around 5 weeks. However, since the Senate is currently in recess for August, it is expected that the confirmation process will not start until early September when Congress reconvenes. Therefore, the earliest the Senate could reopen the process would be mid to late September.

This means that even if everything goes smoothly, the confirmation could land in late September or early October, by which time the September meeting will have already passed, and there will be less than three weeks until the October meeting.

Additionally, I checked a lot of data, and based on cases from the past few decades, even if a board member is confirmed 3 to 4 weeks before a meeting, they usually arrange to start voting from the next meeting to ensure they are familiar with the processes and background.

For example, Powell in 2012 and Brainard in 2014 both participated in the next Federal Reserve vote after their confirmation. So if everything goes as smoothly as possible, Kuggler's successor could participate in the interest rate meeting at the end of October, but the more likely scenario is that they can only participate in the December interest rate meeting.

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