Life is not always so straightforward. We must allow ourselves to take wrong paths and misjudge people, allow work to challenge us, allow our efforts to yield no results, and accept that everything may not go as we wish. We should embrace all existence. But do not compete with yourself; in the end, it will only leave you feeling powerless, disheveled, and in a difficult situation.
Yesterday's market trend was quite similar to what we anticipated, with initial fluctuations during the day followed by a decline in the evening. This aligns with what we mentioned yesterday, that selling pressure from the spot market persisted in the evening, suppressing the market's decline, which reached a low around 112700, still operating at a low level. In terms of operations, we shorted at 115200 and eventually took profit near 113000, then started to go long. The subsequent rebound peaked above 114000, allowing for some profit-taking, though not much. This also illustrates the approach we have been emphasizing recently: in a weak and fluctuating market, we focus on shorting, and there is no need for a larger strategy when going long in the short term. Our operations have been quite good, and we have managed to capture a decent profit margin.
Returning to today's market, from the distribution of liquidity, yesterday's dip cleared some long liquidity, but only down to the 112700 level, indicating an incomplete liquidation. With the market fluctuating again, the current long and short liquidity has changed significantly. The strength of long liquidations is concentrated below, primarily accumulating around 111500, while the short liquidity above is not as strong at a single point but is more widely distributed, with short liquidation strength mainly around 115500. Yesterday's dip ultimately stopped falling and rebounded above the long liquidation zone, and with the addition of new high-leverage long liquidity below, ideally, another dip would clear this new high liquidity, allowing for a higher high in a smaller timeframe, thus temporarily concluding this pullback. On another note, the spot premium rate has not shown a significant increase; currently, the market's decline is mainly due to selling pressure from the spot market. If a bottom-fishing target is provided for the spot market, and the spot premium begins to rise, it may signal a bullish rebound.
From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick closed bearish yesterday, and the candlestick is still following a downward trend along the MA7 daily line. Other aspects are not much different from yesterday; the MACD is still operating within a bearish cycle. Due to the weak fluctuation, the volume bars continue to converge, and the RSI is at a relatively low position, still some distance from being oversold. If we look at the market expectations, the trend is likely to dip again and then start to rebound, which would also allow for the repair of market indicators. This scenario is quite reasonable. In the short term, there is one key signal left for going long: confirmation of a price bottom or the emergence of a long bullish candlestick with volume that breaks above 115800.
On the four-hour level, the market is showing a low-level fluctuation structure. After reaching a low point below 112000 in the four-hour range, there was a rebound. Currently, the trend is somewhat chaotic as it attempts to find a bottom. According to the trend, the MACD is about to enter a bearish phase within the bullish cycle, indicating a potential pullback. If a point lower than the previous low is reached, the market structure is likely to form a bottom divergence. Combined with the daily chart, this trend aligns best with the market.
In terms of operations, the long position taken around 113000 can now have its stop-loss moved up to reduce exposure. We have successfully captured profits on the short and then re-entered long. Recent operations have been quite smooth. For current operations, we will stick to our usual approach, considering low-level weak fluctuations combined with liquidity for trading. If the market rebounds to above 115500, we will look to short again, while if it pulls back to around 111500, we will consider going long.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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