Affected by the new round of global tariff measures from the White House, the cryptocurrency market has also shown bearish signals today. Trump's actions have somewhat diminished the positive impacts of "U.S. Cryptocurrency Week," the continued accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate accounts, and MicroStrategy's latest financing, exacerbating market uncertainty. Macro information and capital flows will be the focus of attention in the near term.

June Core PCE Released, PCE Price Index Year-on-Year Below Expectations

According to Jin10 data, the U.S. June core PCE price index year-on-year is 2.8%, expected at 2.70%, with the previous value revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The U.S. June core PCE price index month-on-month is 0.3%, expected at 0.30%, with the previous value at 0.20%. The market's comparative performance is concerning; "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated on social media that (in June) core PCE inflation appears to be starting to worsen, not better than when the Fed began cutting rates last year, and in some indicators, it is even worse. The three-month annualized rate of the June core PCE price index is 2.6% (compared to 2.3% in the same period last year). Calculated on a six-month annualized basis, this figure is 3.2% (compared to 3.3% in the same period last year).

Reciprocal Tariffs Disturb the Market, Macro Uncertainty Intensifies

The new round of tariffs in the U.S. has triggered market panic, with President Trump signing an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the U.S. from 67 trading partners. White House officials stated Thursday evening that they hope to reach more agreements with countries before the new tariff implementation date of August 7, providing countries with another window to attempt to negotiate lower tariffs. A senior government official said, "This is historic; this is a new trade system, and this is what I call the Trump round of negotiations."

Fiscal Issues as the Focus in September, Fiscal Uncertainty May Further Boost BTC

Every significant fluctuation in BTC has a clear catalytic effect, and price performance is often closely related to real capital flows. As Washington enters its summer recess (the House has adjourned as of July 25, and the Senate is expected to follow suit around July 31), the market's focus will shift back to fiscal issues when Congress reconvenes after Labor Day on September 2. Historically, fiscal uncertainty has always been an important driving force for the rise of hard assets, and BTC is at the forefront of this macro trend.

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