Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night, the Federal Reserve, as most people expected, did not change interest rates. In fact, before the meeting started, Powell had already given a heads-up, saying that old Powell might not cut rates and casually mentioned that he heard there might be a cut in September.

Haha, no one understands the market better than Powell. He knew for sure that there would be no cut this time, so he came out early to soothe the emotions. You could say this old lamp has been worrying about the stock market and U.S. Treasuries, even doing the Fed's job.

Unfortunately, old Powell did not cooperate, stating during his speech that it was not the right time. He didn't leave any room for a rate cut in September, and upon hearing this, U.S. stocks, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin all plummeted, expressing their dissatisfaction. The only beneficiary was the dollar; after all, with high interest rates and a tough stance, it had reasons to remain strong, and the dollar index rose accordingly.

Back to the market, Bitcoin also followed suit, surging to 118.7K at 11 PM before the meeting. But after hearing Powell's hawkish remarks, it quickly dropped to 115.7K. This had nothing to do with technicals but was driven by market sentiment and direction.

If you still tell me that macro factors have no impact on the Bitcoin space, just look at how starting from January 11, 2024, Bitcoin will no longer be a side dish; it will be a risk asset in the U.S.

From January 20, 2025, it will officially become an investment product, elevating its status. Now even politics cannot do without Bitcoin, and stablecoins are essentially the dollar's leash in the international market.

That said, with interest rates unchanged this month, hopes for a September cut have also cooled. Japan has even less reason to act, and will definitely continue to play dead. If they really raise rates by 0.25%, Bitcoin at the current price could drop directly to 102K.

If that level breaks, don’t talk to me about a bull market still being intact. The entire long-term bull market that started at the end of 2022 would be over, and it wouldn't just be a normal adjustment.

If you really can't understand Bitcoin, just look at Ethereum, and you'll see that 4K in August is almost a done deal. The last monthly golden cross was in December 2023, rising from 2440 all the way to 4098.

This time, the golden cross starting point is right at the current price, so is it possible to surge to 6K? Of course, but more conservatively, 4880-5500 is a more reasonable target range.

Then there's tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls; another opportunity is coming. Buy the dips and add where necessary, then hold steady. The next round of rallies will start no later than August 4, and those not on the bus before the rally shouldn't cry later.

Slow is fast; the fluctuations in the past two days can easily shake you off the bus, leaving you to eat exhaust fumes behind. And those who are always going long with one hand and short with the other need to be strict with their defenses, especially as we approach the breakout point. Once a short position gets trapped, don’t expect to get out easily!!!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 119700

First Resistance Level: 118900

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 117300

First Support Level: 116800

The current price is testing the pressure level of the short-term downtrend line. If it can successfully break through the downtrend line, a short-term rebound will occur. However, since the overall market is still in a range-bound fluctuation, there is still significant resistance above, with 119K being a strong pressure point.

If the daily candlestick can stabilize above the moving average and close, the rebound expectation will also strengthen. As we are still in the box consolidation phase, the overall upward space is limited, so it is recommended to operate with a quick in-and-out, ultra-short-term approach.

The first resistance at 118.9K is a clearly strong pressure area from earlier, with the psychological level of 119K overlapping with technical resistance. With current expectations for a rate cut lowered, unless there is a clear positive signal, it is expected that the market will struggle to break through strongly.

The second resistance at 119.7K belongs to the upper range of the fluctuation; if it suddenly surges to this level, a quick pullback will occur. From the current market sentiment, the probability of breaking through in the short term is low.

If a pullback occurs, the first support at 117.3K is a reasonable retracement support. If this support breaks, the short-term will weaken, leading to increased downward pressure. The second support at 116.8K is the low point from which the market rebounded after Powell's speech last night; if it breaks again, the market will form an N-shaped downward structure.

7.31 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 116800-117300 range. Target: 118900-119700

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now.

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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