Today's homework is a bit difficult to write. It's not that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will lead to a bearish outlook; in fact, the risk market has declined under Powell's relatively hawkish remarks, but the rebound came very quickly. The U.S. stock market has already turned from a decline to an increase in pre-market trading, and similarly, $BTC has returned to above $117,200.

This situation is what I emphasized repeatedly in today's weekly report. Currently, the market's game is not about Powell's remarks but rather Trump's influence on Powell and whether Trump will propose a new Federal Reserve chair to oppose Powell. This interest rate meeting might just be Trump's last chance for Powell.

Powell did not respond to Trump's proposal. After Powell's speech, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September has dropped to below 50%, with the probability of no rate cut currently at 55%. This could likely accelerate Trump's search for a successor. The market is eagerly awaiting Trump's statement, but he has not yet made a positive response. However, the price rebound can be seen as a reaction from the market to Trump's dissatisfaction.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has decreased compared to yesterday. Although there was some selling due to Powell's remarks, it is still far from market panic. As we discussed earlier, the current logic of BTC is not about rising purchasing power but rather a decrease in selling pressure. Overall market sentiment is still good and has not affected the essence of BTC.

The supporting data is also very healthy. As long as there is no systemic risk, the stability of BTC prices is still good. However, the accumulation of chips at the $117,000 level is increasing, now exceeding 730,000 coins. If this continues to accumulate, especially if it exceeds 1 million coins, the risk will increase, and this risk pertains to investors' choice of direction.

Data address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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