The U.S. second-quarter GDP announced on Wednesday night had a previous value of -0.5%, with market expectations at 2.4%, while GDPNow provided an expectation of 2.9%, slightly higher than market expectations. This indicates a strong rebound in the U.S. economy in the second quarter from the technical contraction or extremely low growth of the previous quarter, with significant improvements in both nominal growth and seasonally adjusted annualized growth. This may suggest a clear recovery of economic momentum, with a warming in both business and consumer spending.

The main reason is that the increase in net exports offset the downturn in U.S. private domestic investment growth. In other words, the U.S. economy is likely to perform better than market expectations, primarily due to the increase in U.S. exports during the tariff suspension period compared to the first quarter, while the decline in the first quarter was also due to tariff expectations.

However, this may not be good news for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, as the strength of the U.S. economy is evident. The newly imposed tariffs will inevitably impact inflation, and the economic upturn also gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to observe for a longer period.

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