$BTC has recently experienced increased volatility, influenced not only by risk aversion but also by the fluctuating trade policies between China and the United States. Bessenet stated that the market's expectations for a pause in tariffs are overly optimistic, advocating for pressure on China to make concessions; Trump also indicated that if China continues to purchase Russian oil, it will face higher tariffs. Such remarks have heightened market concerns, affecting the sentiment towards risk assets.

In terms of macro data, today's decline in job vacancies has triggered slight market fluctuations, and tomorrow's ADP non-farm payroll data may further impact expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If employment remains strong, it could suppress expectations for a rate cut in September. While maintaining the interest rate in July has become a consensus, there is still uncertainty about whether Powell will signal a dovish stance.

On-chain data shows that the turnover rate of $BTC has slightly increased, mainly concentrated among high-position holders, reflecting a cautious approach from some funds regarding trade risks and policy direction. FOMO sentiment has weakened, and the market has entered a state of low buying and low selling pressure. Current support remains stable, but the URPD gap around $112,000 has yet to be filled, posing a potential risk. The market is awaiting Powell's speech for new directional guidance.

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