Difficulties have been felt across various industries. Many people say that in 2026, the economy will improve, and that year will be the last year of the Kondratiev wave recession cycle. Let's hope so! Real estate, once considered the biggest risk, has seen a continuous decline after the pandemic. Currently, it can be said that most have already soft-landed, with the landing method resembling a "boiling frog" approach, allowing all homebuyers and investors to disperse their risks, which are now minimal. Investment, consumption, and operations in various industries are shrinking, but everything is cyclical; the end of one cycle signifies the beginning of a new one.

According to the market analysis we provided yesterday, we are currently holding short positions near 119500. Yesterday's market was relatively simple, characterized by a slow rise within a range. In fact, it can still be seen that the market is moving within a range, but in the short term, the main trend is an upward fluctuation. The current short-term high point has reached 119800, still operating at a high level.

Returning to today's market, after the weekend, market liquidity has changed again. With the market fluctuating upward, the short-term bearish liquidity that accumulated around 119500 has been cleared. Currently, the intensity of short liquidity clearance is around 121000, while bullish liquidity is more abundant, mainly distributed around 118000 and lower at 116000. At this stage, liquidity tends to dictate where prices go for clearance. Based on the current distribution of long and short liquidity, there is a strong demand for short-term bullish liquidity clearance around 118000. However, the current short-term trend is an upward fluctuation, making it somewhat difficult to achieve lower bullish clearance. Additionally, the current reduction in spot premium should be monitored; if a pullback occurs and the premium rises, it would be a good short-term buying opportunity.

From a technical perspective, a new week has begun, and a small bullish candle has formed on the weekly chart, within a relatively high narrow range. This structure does not provide strong reference for short-term operations. If this week's closing continues to show a bullish candle and breaks the previous high, then a strong market trend is expected to continue at the weekly level, with the adjustment structure on the weekly chart likely extending further. If the next two weeks continue to fluctuate, it would signal a slightly bearish indication from a structural perspective, as the price increase after the new high has been too small. The more it fluctuates, the more unfavorable it is for bulls. Additionally, from the indicators, they are all at relatively high levels. The bullish scenario should ideally see the price break new highs, continue to rise to the weekly overbought line, and then fluctuate.

On the four-hour level, after the market fluctuated to the high point of 119800, it began to slightly retreat. From the market structure, a doji candle has formed at the high, followed by another bearish candle, indicating an expectation of a pullback. Moreover, on the technical indicators, MACD is in a bullish cycle with high volume, indicating a need for indicator correction. However, under the current structure, a significant pullback on the four-hour chart does not seem likely, with support around 117200.

In terms of operations, the short position near 119500 from yesterday is currently profitable. We hope the market can pull back to at least below 118000, then observe whether the spot premium rises to enter long positions. The acceptable pullback limit is around 116000. Therefore, our operation today will be to first enter a short position below 118000, then monitor subsequent real-time market changes. If there is a direct breakout afterward, we will look to short positions above 121000.

【The above analysis and strategy are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and real-time market changes may lead to information lag. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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