Good morning, crypto friends! I am Wang Yibo. Today is Friday, July 25, 2025. Let's review the real-time dynamics of the crypto market, breaking down the trends from policy to technology to grasp potential trading opportunities.
1. Macroeconomic and Market Linkage: Policy Expectations Dominate Short-Term Sentiment
The focus of the financial market yesterday was undoubtedly the "positive interaction" between Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump made a rare visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters, where he publicly clashed with Powell over project overruns but still emphasized "no tense relationship"; more importantly, he once again publicly called for interest rate cuts—this statement, while not directly changing the Federal Reserve's policy path, reinforced the market's imagination of "future easing."
From the CME "FedWatch" data, current policy expectations have clearly diverged:
July Interest Rate
: The probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 95.9%, with only a 4.1% chance of a rate cut, making it a foregone conclusion that short-term policy will remain "on hold";
September Interest Rate
: The probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 39.2%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 58.4%, significantly heating up market expectations for "a rate cut by the end of the third quarter."
This expectation is directly reflected in the performance of U.S. stocks: on Thursday, the Dow Jones fell 0.7% (traditional economic sectors under pressure), while the Nasdaq rose 0.18% (tech stocks relatively resilient). The sharp declines in airline stocks (American Airlines and Southwest Airlines fell over 10%) and Tesla (down 8.2%) exposed the market's concerns about "the sustained impact of high interest rates on demand."
Impact on the Crypto Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum maintained high-level consolidation after an overnight rebound, echoing the Nasdaq's "resilience"—as risk assets, they benefit from the liquidity easing expectations brought by "future rate cuts," but are also constrained by the funding tightening pressure from "unchanged short-term rates." The significant declines in altcoins (especially fleeting concept coins) indicate that market risk appetite has not fully recovered, with funds more inclined to flow into mainstream assets.
2. Bitcoin: The 120,000 Threshold Becomes the Core of Long and Short Battles, Seizing Range Opportunities Amid Wide Fluctuations
Bitcoin experienced a "bottoming rebound" overnight: rebounding from a low of 117,790 to a high of 119,435 before encountering resistance, currently oscillating within the 118,000 - 119,500 range. From a technical perspective, there are three key signals in the current trend:
Daily Level: Short-Term Support Effective, but Pressure Not Broken
The price has formed support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range (around 117,000), rebounding to the upper edge of the range (119,000 - 120,000) and encountering resistance, indicating that the current market has not yet escaped the "wide oscillation" framework. The daily K-line has not shown any significant breakout signals, and the short-term pullback risk has not yet expanded.4-Hour Chart: Volatility Increasing, Upside Potential Exists
The price has broken through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and stabilized, with the Bollinger Bands showing an expanding trend—this means that price volatility is increasing. If it can break through the upper band resistance (around 120,000), the upside potential is expected to open up. Meanwhile, the K-line shows a "gradually rising low" characteristic of oscillating upward, indicating that bulls still have potential momentum.Key Critical Point: Breaking and Holding the 120,000 Threshold
If it can stabilize above 120,000, it means breaking through the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and the trend may extend to the 122,000 - 125,000 range; if it continues to be pressured below 120,000, one must be wary of the risk of retreating back to the 117,000 support level (if broken, it may test 115,000).
Trading Suggestions: The current trend is clearly "wide oscillation," with longs and shorts repeatedly battling within the range, so "short high and long low" is the core strategy—lightly shorting near the 120,000 resistance level (stop loss above 121,000), and lightly longing when it pulls back to the 117,000 - 117,500 support level (stop loss below 116,000).
3. Ethereum: Support Solid but Bullish Momentum Weakens, Short-Term Priority on Shorting Rebounds
Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin's, but with more "accumulation characteristics": rebounding from a low of 3,610 to a high of 3,769 before retreating, currently consolidating in the 3,700-3,750 range. Two dimensions need attention from a technical perspective:
Daily and Hourly Signals Resonance
The daily chart forms a "long lower shadow bullish candle," indicating strong buying support in the 3,600-3,610 range, limiting short-term downside potential;
The hourly chart shows a pullback after reaching a high of 3,769, currently in high-level consolidation—although the price is still near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, the MACD indicator shows weakening bullish momentum (DIF and DEA are close to the zero axis, and the momentum bars are shrinking), indicating a short-term need for a pullback.
Clear Boundaries of Pressure and Support
The upper pressure level is concentrated in the 3,760-3,780 range (near recent highs), while the lower support level is at 3,680 (middle band of the Bollinger Bands) and 3,610 (overnight low). If it cannot break through the 3,780 pressure, the probability of a pullback will increase; if the pullback can hold above 3,680, it will still be considered a "strong consolidation."
Trading Suggestions: Before breaking the upper pressure level, "shorting rebounds" is more prudent—lightly shorting when rebounding to the 3,760-3,780 range (stop loss above 3,800); if it pulls back and stabilizes in the 3,680-3,700 range, consider lightly longing (stop loss below 3,650).
4. Risk Warning and Market Summary
The current crypto market is in a phase of "macroeconomic expectation battles + technical range oscillation," with both Bitcoin's 120,000 threshold and Ethereum's 3,780 pressure level being key to determining the short-term direction. It is important to remind:
Altcoins (especially "fleeting" concept coins) have seen significant declines, reflecting that market funds are still in a risk-averse mood, so do not blindly chase high-potential themes;
Federal Reserve policy expectations and the performance of U.S. tech stocks remain important linkage indicators, and it is necessary to continuously monitor whether the September rate cut expectations change;
The trading risk of virtual currencies is extremely high, and it is essential to strictly set stop losses and control positions (it is recommended that a single position does not exceed 5% of total funds).
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck at the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, miss out on trends… these are common problems for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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