Today's homework is relatively good, and there isn't anything too complicated. Although the market has fluctuations, they are all within a normal range. Especially since the U.S. stock market is currently showing a slight increase, it indicates that there are no major issues overall. The pullback in cryptocurrency is mainly due to altcoin problems, which we focused on discussing today. If there is no overflow of liquidity, we still need to wait for the altcoin season.

Today, a significant amount of space and data was dedicated to clarifying this issue. Although $ETH is rising, much of the buying power is not coming from the cryptocurrency sector; rather, it is coming from the primary and secondary markets of spot ETFs. In this situation, even if there is overflow capital, it is unlikely to flow into the crypto space, not to mention that there are currently no clear signs that this group of investors has taken profits and exited.

Therefore, the altcoin season may still need to wait. We should first wait for $BTC and ETH to stabilize before discussing it. This time, the movement of ETH is somewhat similar to Bitcoin's in early 2024, both driven by purchases from traditional investors.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate continues to decline significantly, and it no longer resembles weekday data; instead, it has returned to a "garbage time" state. It's worth noting that a week ago today, the turnover rate was at least three times higher than it is now. A decrease in turnover indicates that investors' speculative sentiment is slowing down, and they are waiting for market signals.

Currently, the main signals are tariffs and monetary policy. Today, Trump announced tariffs with Japan, which are 15% and $500 billion in investments, a pretty good result. Yesterday, the Philippines' 19% was also below expectations, and today there are reports of a forthcoming 15% tariff agreement with the EU. The only remaining issue is China, and these factors are stabilizing market sentiment.

There isn't much to say about monetary policy; the market is still expecting Trump to quickly select Powell's successor, which would allow market expectations for interest rates to decline rapidly. There haven't been any issues found on the support side, but the gap remains a key focus for me.

Data address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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