🧵 Summary of Arthur Hayes' latest long article "Time Signature" —

Arthur Hayes predicts: the year-end targets are $250,000 for Bitcoin and $10,000 for Ethereum.

The ERC-20 sector: will become the hottest alpha gathering place!

Will crypto become the last buyer in the U.S. Treasury cycle?

1/

Hayes uses "dancing" as a metaphor for investing:

Music has a beat, and dancers must step to the rhythm;

The market also has a rhythm, and investors must identify the "time signature."

And this metronome is — the credit expansion of fiat currency.

2/

For Hayes, the most critical variable affecting asset prices is the rhythm of fiat currency supply.

When fiat currency is printed abundantly, scarce assets like BTC/ETH will rise.

Since 2009, Bitcoin has actually been the best "money printing hedge" in human history.

3/

No more macro discussions, and no looking at the Federal Reserve; what we need to focus on is: the credit explosion driven by a new round of wartime economy.

The American version of the "China model" is quietly unfolding —

The state guides investment directions, banks provide matching loans, the public gains employment, and companies receive "guaranteed profits."

4/ The most typical example is:

🇺🇸 The U.S. Department of Defense + JP Morgan + MP Materials' rare earth deal.

The Department of Defense becomes the largest shareholder;

The government guarantees procurement;

Banks immediately provide $1 billion in loans to build factories;

Employment increases, credit expands, and the economy's "growth" seems prosperous.

This is what Hayes calls "QE for Poor People."

5/

But this is not free growth. Credit expansion inevitably leads to inflation.

So how does the government guide this inflation, ensuring that food and housing prices do not skyrocket while creating the illusion of "wealth for all"?

The answer is: inflate a controllable asset bubble.

6/ China has real estate; who will the U.S. choose?

The answer is — Crypto.

The proportion of young people and minorities holding crypto is much higher than that of traditional assets;

The money invested will not flow out of the system but will instead flow back into the U.S. Treasury market through stablecoins;

Investors become wealthy, the government finances itself, and tax revenues increase, achieving three goals with one arrow.

7/

The "perfect closed-loop" model👇

Credit expansion → Crypto rises → Stablecoin AUC increases → Invest in T-Bills → Cover the fiscal deficit

For every $1 increase in total Crypto market value → Stablecoin market value increases by $0.09 → Increases demand for U.S. Treasuries

A new style of financial bond dance has already begun.

8/

He even made a prediction:

🟠 BTC: $250,000

🟣 ETH: $10,000

🧠 The ERC-20 sector: will become the hottest alpha gathering place

Maelstrom has already fully deployed, all in Ethereum + DeFi + shitcoins.

📌 Conclusion:

Hayes' core logic is not about promoting Bitcoin or calling for Ethereum.

What he is saying is: Crypto has become part of the national credit system and is the "frontline actor" in the new round of U.S. Treasury prosperity.

This aligns with my pinned tweet from three years ago!

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