You treat me well, and I will treat you well; this is called a transaction. You treat me well, and I treat you well; this is called mutual effort. No matter how you treat me, I will still treat you well; this is called compassion. Anything done in the name of love that does not receive compassion is merely a carefully packaged desire. We often think we are giving our true hearts, but we frequently calculate gains and losses in secret; true love never keeps accounts!
The weekend market continues to show familiar fluctuations; it seems that most weekend markets this year have been dominated by oscillations. Until today, Monday, the market experienced a dip in the morning but then began to rebound. It has now returned above the dip starting point of 118,000, overall oscillating around this level. In terms of operations, it’s a bit frustrating. In the short term, from the upper level of 120,000, it almost provided an entry point for shorting, and at the lower level, it nearly gave an entry point for going long below 116,000. The main issue is that we had a pending order below 116,000 this morning, and it’s a pity we couldn’t capitalize on this rebound after the dip.
Returning to today’s market, a wave of decline has cleared the bullish liquidity that had gathered around 116,500, and under the condition of a bottom-finding candlestick, it indicates that this market dip specifically targeted the bullish liquidity at this position. It also makes it clear that there is now more bearish liquidity above, with the clearing intensity mainly concentrated around 120,000. After the dip, the market has started to rebound and is gradually approaching the bearish clearing area above. In terms of spot premium, after the dip, there has been an increase. We previously analyzed that the buying power from the spot market has been waiting for Bitcoin to provide a suitable entry price, and the sudden dip amidst the oscillation has provided a good entry point. If the market completes the clearing of the bearish positions above and the spot premium rate declines again, it will also be an opportunity to participate in shorting in the short term.
On the technical side, in the past few trading days, the daily closing has seen K-lines continuously form small bearish doji candlesticks. The coin price has been operating below the MA7 line, showing a small-scale trend of oscillation and correction. However, today’s market rebounded after the dip with sufficient strength, currently returning above the MA7 line. Next, we will still look at the daily closing. If today’s rebound strength does not close below, it can basically confirm that the short-term trend is still a downward oscillation. If it closes above, the expectation for the daily level correction indicators will be delayed. On the technical indicators, MACD is currently very close to a death cross, with the bullish cycle volume bars converging to the limit, and RSI is also at a high level. From the daily level, if it goes directly upward, the upward space is relatively limited. If it undergoes a period of correction and repair before choosing to go up, it will be more favorable for the subsequent market. This view has been mentioned before and remains unchanged.
On the four-hour level, the market has been continuously oscillating, digesting the four-hour level correction expectations through oscillation. With the rise after the morning dip, the bulls have regained strength in the short term, bringing the current market into a bullish cycle. Next, we need to observe the strength of this bullish cycle. Combined with the daily level, we can expect a pattern of rising first and then falling.
In terms of operations, if the subsequent rebound reaches the 120,500 position, we can short first, and at 121,500, we can arrange to add positions, breaking through 122,000 for defense, with a target looking at 116,000-117,000. Below, we will still look to go long at low positions, operating based on real-time market conditions.
Ethereum has unexpectedly reached above 3,800 recently, and from the perspective of buying funds for Ethereum, it is mainly institutions making purchases, while most retail investors in the market are shorting, continuously shorting during rebounds, which promotes the ongoing rise of the market. In this independent rising trend of Ethereum, we have been continuously reminding for a long time that it is better not to short and to focus on going long. The time to short will come when there is a clear outflow of funds and Ethereum's performance starts to weaken compared to Bitcoin.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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