Today's homework is not difficult to write. Although the prices have fluctuated somewhat, there isn't anything particularly noteworthy. Trump's main focus remains on tariffs and the Federal Reserve, as the agreement signed with Ukraine regarding rare earth payments has made Russia's ongoing conflict a thorn in the flesh, which will naturally add some pressure, but it doesn't have a significant impact on the current market.
Tomorrow's focus will still be on the CPI data. From the market's expectations, the broad CPI previous value that ordinary investors are most concerned about is 2.4%, while the market expectation is 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed's expectation is 2.64%. Regardless of the perspective, the final published CPI data being greater than the previous value is quite likely. Of course, I can understand if you say that the Labor Statistics Bureau's data might present some surprises.
The Federal Reserve is more concerned about core inflation, which was 2.8% last month. The market expectation is 3%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast is 2.95%. Similarly, the rise in core inflation is also quite probable. Many friends might say that this means a decline is imminent, as rising inflation indicates a decreased willingness for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
However, the current market expectation is not about what this Federal Reserve will do, but rather what the new Federal Reserve will do. Especially since Trump mentioned on television today that U.S. interest rates should be below 1%. Although this seems a bit unreliable, it is indeed something the market likes to hear. Therefore, I believe that if this inflation data does not meet expectations, the impact may be limited.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, since it has reached a new high, the URPD data is still not favorable. However, we can see a gap around $114,200, and there is also a small gap between $112,000 and $114,000. The probability of the URPD gap being filled is 100%.
However, the URPD gap cannot only be filled by a decline. If it can break through to a new high again and be recalculated, there is also a possibility of it being filled, but it is certainly correct to say that it will be filled 100%.
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