In the midst of strategizing, we can win from a thousand miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.
The cryptocurrency market has shown strong performance for two consecutive days, with Bitcoin (BTC) breaking through $112,000 to reach a historic high, and Ethereum (ETH) also rebounding significantly to $2,782, with a daily increase of nearly 7%. As the market just started to move, Lin Chao received numerous private messages from fans asking if a bull market is about to start and whether their altcoins can be liberated. Lin Chao is not pessimistic about the cryptocurrency market, but he laments that many people do not understand what a "cycle" is.
From Lin Chao's perspective, crypto assets are undergoing a significant process of institutionalization and mainstream acceptance, with value consensus continuously strengthening. Empirical data shows that global listed companies are actively allocating crypto assets, especially Bitcoin as a core reserve asset. From on-chain data, it was found that just last week, the net inflow of Bitcoin into listed companies reached $275 million. Companies such as Japan's Metaplanet, the UK's The Smarter Web, and France's Blockchain Group have all made substantial increases in their holdings. Even more, Japan's Remixpoint plans to invest all of the newly raised $215 million into Bitcoin, while Sweden's H100 Group and the US's Genius Group continue to expand their Bitcoin reserve targets. Additionally, the successful listing and high valuation of stablecoin issuer Circle have further enhanced the acceptance and valuation expectations of crypto assets in the traditional financial sector. At the same time, the continuous net inflow of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the gradual clarification of Hong Kong's regulatory framework, and initiatives by institutions like Japan's SBI to convert credit card points into cryptocurrencies all confirm the irreversible long-term trend of crypto assets integrating into the mainstream financial ecosystem from different dimensions.
Lin Chao believes that the short-term strong upward movement of the market is mainly driven by specific macro events and a calming of risk sentiment. For example, the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions (such as the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine) and the market's adjustment of expectations regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies. Although Trump announced on July 9 that tariffs would be imposed on multiple countries, including Brazil and Libya (with rates ranging from 20% to 50%), the market's reaction was relatively restrained. On one hand, the effective date of the policy was strategically postponed to August 1; on the other hand, the market has developed a certain "expectation dulling" due to the repeated occurrence of such trade frictions. The impact of tariffs on end prices may not fully manifest until 2026. This has alleviated investors' panic over short-term inflation spikes and economic damage in the short term, providing a price recovery window for risk assets (including mainstream cryptocurrencies).
Despite the positive long-term trend and short-term supporting factors, the policy uncertainty facing the market remains high, and the downward trend of market fluctuations has not changed. Lin Chao wants to remind everyone that the tariff policy announced by Trump will officially take effect on August 1, and the actual impact on global trade, inflation, and economic growth is still difficult to assess accurately, posing potential risks for market volatility. Secondly, although market expectations for the timing and intensity of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have warmed due to factors such as the "Big and Beautiful" bill, a substantive shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy still requires more economic data for validation, which carries the risk of expectations falling short. Thirdly, for the broader altcoin market, regulatory recognition is a key bottleneck.
Moreover, the current market capital is showing a clear structural differentiation, with upward momentum highly concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few leading altcoins (such as SOL, XRP), rather than the broader altcoin market. On-chain data also shows that "whale" addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH are accelerating their accumulation, with their holding growth rate even surpassing the level before the significant rise of ETH in mid-2022, indicating a preference for core assets among large funds. Driven by multiple favorable factors (such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, seasonal factors, and potential interest rate cuts), Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks are expected to lead the market, while most mid-sized altcoins are expected to underperform Bitcoin. Market liquidity is flowing towards listed companies implementing Bitcoin treasury strategies and crypto-related stocks, rather than being dispersed across the broader altcoin space. The development of tokenization platforms on Wall Street provides traditional funds with a more compliant entry focused on mainstream assets, further reinforcing the trend of capital concentrating on leading assets.
Lin Chao's Summary
Lin Chao has always maintained the view that the cryptocurrency market has a solid long-term development foundation. Everyone must clearly recognize that the crypto market is still a price lowland; for a new reservoir, the current market capitalization capacity of the crypto market has not yet reached the standards expected by the United States. As time goes on, the increasing institutional adoption, the evolution of regulatory frameworks, and the improvement of financial infrastructure will jointly support its value growth logic.
However, the recent price rise mainly stems from the temporary easing of specific macro risks (geopolitical, trade frictions) and the repair of market sentiment, which is a short-term driver and not the beginning of a long-term bull market. Moreover, the market structure shows a clear differentiation, with funds continuously gathering towards leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while the broader altcoin market lacks systemic upward momentum. It is indeed premature to predict the start of an altcoin season based on a short-term uptick. Long-term users who have been following Lin Chao know that I have always emphasized that the long-term market will definitely grow, but with the current changes in the world order and policies, more new funds will concentrate on leading cryptocurrencies.
In simpler terms, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and leading altcoins will not experience a universal rise; the era of relying on holding altcoins to turn around has ended. The most optimistic time window for the approval of spot ETFs for several altcoins, including LTC, SOL, and XRP, is also in the second half of 2025. Before these key policy variables are clearly established, market sentiment is easily disturbed. Additionally, the current prices of major crypto assets are at historical highs, and the accumulated substantial profits may amplify any selling pressure triggered by negative news, leading to short-term corrections. Users still holding large amounts of altcoins must seize every opportunity during market upswings to reduce their altcoin holdings and shift into mainstream currencies.
More critically, multiple significant policy variables (actual impact of tariffs, Federal Reserve monetary policy path, altcoin regulatory approvals) remain unresolved, constituting the main sources of short-term downward risk for the market. Therefore, Lin Chao judges that the downward trend of market fluctuations has not changed, and everyone should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, especially regarding the general market for altcoins, where patience and rationality should be upheld.
I have previously mentioned in the article that for spot users, the entire period from June to September is the best adjustment opportunity for 2025, allowing for the adjustment of holdings based on market fluctuations. Replace junk altcoins with mainstream altcoins, and mainstream altcoins with Bitcoin and Ethereum. The real market explosion phase should occur after the fog of policy completely dissipates, waiting for the specific policies of interest rate cuts and tariffs to be fully released and implemented before the market can truly welcome a bull market.
The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and making good asset allocations are essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life in the world is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or a momentary profit and loss, but rather a well-thought-out strategy and knowing when to stop to gain.
This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks; investment requires caution!
The global market is ever-changing, and the world is a whole. Follow Lin Chao to gain a top-tier global financial perspective.
For real-time consultation, please follow the public account: Lin Chao on Cryptocurrency.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
