Life is like a line; as long as today continues and tomorrow holds hope, we are always at the starting point, always on the path of running. Do not fear the long road, do not complain about the lack of scenery along the way. Never despair at any time; as long as you keep running, the obstacles underfoot are actually the stepping stones that elevate our lives. Perhaps the turning point is just around the next corner!
Yesterday, there was no article update mainly because there was indeed no significant market movement during the day; it was stuck in a small range of fluctuations, so there was nothing to update. However, in the evening, the market began to surge uncontrollably, reaching a high of 109750 at 9 PM, followed by an immediate pullback. Then, starting in the early morning, a strong rally began, continuing all the way to a new high. In terms of operations, everyone should be able to see the trading strategy that has been emphasized in recent days: as long as 107000 is not broken, we are looking at a fluctuating upward market, which is the basis for being bullish recently. Additionally, a short position was arranged at 109500, providing the first entry opportunity, which later also gave a profit during the pullback. The key point we emphasized, "right-side trading," is that when the market breaks 110000, it provides an opportunity for right-side trading. However, in actual operations, there were still some issues. If the short position from yesterday was not exited during the pullback, it would definitely have been stopped out during the subsequent rally. The rally occurred in the early morning, and without any pending orders, it was basically too late to engage in right-side trading to chase the long position. Of course, if one had held onto the long position until the high, they would have made the most profit, but personally, I was unable to enter a long position as the market had not yet formed a breakout before I went to sleep. Then, Bitcoin stealthily reached a historical new high, driven by the rise in the US stock market.
Today's market is still worth paying attention to. First, from the perspective of liquidity clearing intensity, this wave of rally has completed the clearing of most of the previous short liquidity. Currently, the main short liquidity clearing intensity in the short term is mainly around the 113000 level, while the long liquidity intensity is heavily concentrated around 108000, and the liquidity is higher than that of the shorts. This may indicate that after Bitcoin breaks the new high, the market has given the bulls stronger confidence during the current slight pullback, believing that Bitcoin will reach even higher levels after the new high. As for the shorts, it is also interesting; despite the market having broken the new high, new short liquidity continues to accumulate. It seems there are many shorts that refuse to give up. In this case, if the market continues to fluctuate, will it attract more shorts to join in, thus providing another opportunity for the market to clear the shorts? At least, it can be seen that there is indeed this possibility. Interestingly, this new high is only slightly higher than the previous one by just over 100 points, which does not seem to align with a strong bullish market trend. According to the structural pattern, it also fits the double top formation and liquidity grabbing behavior. Therefore, if a pullback occurs afterward, the bulls may find it difficult.
From a technical perspective, the impact of this rally on the larger cycle is minimal in terms of structural change. The daily chart shows a strong rally, but the actual volume is not large, and the spot premium has not risen significantly, indicating that the buying power in the spot market does not match the strong buying sentiment required to break the historical new high. The only concern here is that this small new high could form a reversal pattern, and in terms of technical indicators, the MACD volume bars are moving smoothly, making it easy to enter a pullback into a bearish adjustment cycle. The RSI is also at a relatively high level, but it may still have some distance before entering the overbought territory. If we consider the larger weekly buffer zone, then if there is another bullish rally afterward, it may be necessary to consider entering a major bearish trend layout after entering the overbought territory.
After the four-hour rally, there has been a certain pullback, but this slight pullback has not formed a technical indicator repair. Generally, short-term market movements after significant fluctuations are the most uncomfortable, providing little reference for short-term trading plans. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is operating at a high level in the bullish cycle, and the RSI is also high. There should be a pullback repair process in the short term. From a structural perspective, the previous high around 109700 has formed a top-bottom conversion after the strong rally, becoming a key support level below. If the market confirms a pullback to support, we can look forward to the subsequent market.
In terms of operations, I still want to short a little at this position, just operating on a very short-term basis. A light short position can be taken around the current price of 111300, using the high point as a stop loss. If the market breaks out, then wait for the completion of the upper short liquidity clearing before laying out a short position, likely above 112500. If it pulls back, then we can look to enter long around 109700, using 109000 as a stop loss, and then adjust according to the subsequent trend.
Ethereum seems to be fulfilling the market trend expectations we have been emphasizing. Bitcoin has broken the new high, and Ethereum has subsequently started an independent market, making the possibility of a "doomsday chariot" style market more likely. We need to see in the coming days whether Ethereum's market truly becomes independent. Therefore, for Ethereum, the current stage is mainly a small pullback, primarily bullish in the short term, and then waiting for an opportunity to layout for a larger pullback. In terms of operations, if there is a pullback to around 2720, we can enter long.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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