BTC volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, a phenomenon that has only occurred seven times in history. Each time it reached these levels, volatility surged significantly within five weeks, often even faster. The recent market situation has captured the hearts of countless traders; it’s hard to ignore as it has approached previous highs, touching a maximum of 110,500, only about 1,500 points away from the previous high, before retracing to around 107,000 where it found support.

Ethereum has returned above 2,300, oscillating within a range, with the weekly chart retracing to the middle Bollinger Band as the bands narrow. If Bitcoin lingers here for a long time, Ethereum may also take some time to consolidate. It’s worth noting that in recent years, Ethereum has often surged after two to three months of bottom oscillation (this will be analyzed in detail in the next video).

Bitcoin

✅ Flag pattern breakout confirmed

✅ Structural retest remains stable

✅ Momentum is building after the third wave

✅ Macro uptrend is intact; this trend may accelerate quickly, and the next phase of the bull market is unfolding.

On the daily chart, the ascending flag structure has broken out and is currently oscillating near the upper edge of the flag. As long as it stays above the MA20 and MA60, there is still a chance for a breakout. The current flag retest here is reminiscent of last year's flag breakout retest.

If we consider the move from 74,500 to 112,000 as the first wave, the flag as the second wave, then breaking the previous high would be seen as the third wave. Once the previous high is broken, a proportional target of 135,000 will be reached.

Currently, it is testing the support at 107,000, with a key level at 105,000, which is near the MA20 and MA60 support. A drop below this level would lead to considering continued oscillation within the ascending flag, aligning the entire adjustment cycle with last year’s pattern, and September and October still look promising.

Support: 105,000 - 107,000

Resistance: 109,000 - 112,000

Ethereum

There isn’t much to say about Ethereum; it basically follows Bitcoin's trend. However, it’s worth noting that Ethereum has often experienced a one-sided trend after oscillating at the bottom for two to three months over the past two years, and it is currently above the three moving averages on the daily chart. Therefore, the focus is still on whether Bitcoin can effectively break out, allowing Ethereum to follow and experience a catch-up rally. It has been oscillating between 2,300 and 2,700 for over 70 days, and the support in this area is relatively strong. Even if there is a short-term pullback, the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish.

Support: 2,300 - 2,400

Resistance: 2,700 - 2,800

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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.

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