On the way back today, I was still talking to @Trader_S18 about how I've been drinking too much lately, and my mind isn't quite clear. In the past week, I've been drinking five out of seven days. Although it hasn't affected my writing, the frequency of my replies has indeed decreased, so I need to reflect on this. Starting next week, I plan to drink less, limiting it to once or twice a week, no more than that. Coincidentally, my drinking buddy is going on vacation next week, so I’ll take a break too.

The rumored 80,000 $BTC has continued to cause no harm, and many who were waiting to see a joke and short the market have temporarily missed out. Honestly, I don't want to go back and forth with unnecessary talk; just looking at the exchange inventory data should be the most helpful data for this cycle. It's simple, straightforward, and doesn't cost anything.

Currently, the Bitcoin inventory across all exchanges is at its lowest point in nearly five years, spanning two cycles. Starting from November 2024, regardless of how BTC's price moves, the exchange inventory has been declining, indicating that there have always been investors continuously buying or withdrawing. This also represents that most investors have no interest in exiting the market in the short term.

I really can't think of how much BTC could drop under such strong consensus unless there is a systemic risk. A couple of days ago, when it was around $109,000, I mentioned that while I think there is room for shorting, I wouldn't short because I just don't know what kind of positive news could suddenly push BTC's price up.

Today, when Besant announced its tariff partnership, the market began to speculate whether U.S. investors would respond positively on Monday. It’s a three-day holiday, and the U.S. stock market hasn't reacted yet, but BTC has completed the information transition from the trade dispute to tariff trading.

Such data is the best barometer of market sentiment. I highly recommend it.

Next is the support data, which has also been validated multiple times. As long as the support is not broken, price stability is guaranteed. This data has also been my reference for bottom-fishing multiple times.

Now, I'm not sure if being bullish after a rise is correct, but being bearish after a drop without systemic risk might be incorrect. More importantly, don't scare yourself; if the sky falls, there are tall people to hold it up.

Data address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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