A brief analysis: Currently, the United States has already implemented a 10% basic tariff. Although it seems to have a minor impact, this 10% rate is 4-5 times the average tariff in the U.S. for 2024. This time, the reciprocal tariff is also expected to be 10%, meaning that countries that reach an agreement with the U.S. in advance will face a total tariff of 20%. According to Besant, there will be 100 countries involved, which is actually a majority.

However, there will still be a significant increase in tariffs for some major economies. Although there are opportunities for negotiation, it will impact the market. Personally, I still believe it will be a TACO (Trump's retreat deal), and as expected, the implementation date for the reciprocal tariffs has been postponed from July 9 to August 1, effectively adding another month for communication.

It is currently difficult to determine the final conclusion, but the market has already begun to react in advance. The focus for the third quarter will be the game of tariffs and monetary policy. If high tariffs are imposed on countries like China, the European Union, and Japan, the cost of living may increase. Moreover, the cost that Powell is concerned about is likely not a one-time increase, and it could involve retaliatory tariffs.

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