Written by: Yue Xiaoyu

First of all, the stablecoin sector will see a "Battle of the Hundreds" in the future. After intense competition, USDT will still be the leader among offshore stablecoins, and USDC will remain the leader among compliant stablecoins, but a large number of mid-tier stablecoins will emerge.

These mid-tier stablecoins mainly fall into two categories: compliant stablecoins created by Web2 companies and decentralized stablecoins created by Web3 companies.

1. Still optimistic about stablecoins created by Web2 companies

In different countries and regions, as well as in different business scenarios, many local leaders will emerge, similar to "local snakes," such as the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin and the JD stablecoin in the e-commerce sector.

These are areas that USDC and USDT may not reach, and these segmented stablecoins can integrate more deeply with local enterprises or their own businesses.

Of course, from a political perspective, various countries and regions aim to prevent capital outflow and avoid being siphoned off by the dollar, so they will promote local fiat stablecoins, using compliant means to keep funds circulating within their own financial systems.

We can actually refer to the existing exchange landscape: besides a few absolute leading exchanges, there are also many mid-tier exchanges.

How do these mid-tier exchanges survive?

The core strategies they adopt are twofold:

• First, they focus on altcoins and niche trading pairs, which means binding to different business scenarios;
• Second, they delve into niche countries or regions, capturing segmented markets;

Thus, even with pressure from leading players, mid-tier stablecoins still have room to survive.

2. Still optimistic about decentralized stablecoins created by Web3 companies

Currently, the stablecoin bill in the United States includes a provision that prohibits stablecoin companies from paying interest to users.

The draft consultation for stablecoins in Hong Kong has a similar provision.

The purpose of this rule is to ensure that stablecoins truly become a payment tool, rather than a so-called investment return competing with bank deposits.

However, there is a strong market demand for "interest-bearing stablecoins." For example, if you are a business or a large holder with substantial reserve funds, you would still hope to obtain stable returns while ensuring safety.

If you convert to USDT/USDC and leave it there, it yields no returns, but Tether and Circle take the dollar they acquire at no cost and invest it, reaping the benefits. This presents an opportunity for interest-bearing stablecoins.

Only decentralized stablecoins created by Web3 companies can, to some extent, circumvent compliance restrictions by packaging some CeFi and DeFi financial products as stablecoins, providing users with stable returns or even high returns.

The most typical examples are the "neutral strategy stablecoins" that have emerged in this cycle, such as Ethena's USDe and BitFi from the Bitcoin ecosystem.

By leveraging perpetual contracts, a project holding 1 ETH can "short" (sell) an equivalent value of ETH in the perpetual contract market. The result is that regardless of ETH's price fluctuations, the total value remains basically unchanged, achieving "neutrality," and the project can also distribute the funding rate income to users holding the stablecoin.

Once safety is guaranteed and stable returns are provided, the appeal of these decentralized stablecoins is still very strong.

In summary

The stablecoin market resembles an iceberg:

• Compliant stablecoins are the part above sea level, with USDC occupying a large share, and it will continue to grow in the future, but there will also be many regional compliant stablecoins;
• Offshore stablecoins are the part below sea level, with USDT holding a significant share, much larger than the part above sea level;
• However, in deeper areas, where USDC and USDT cannot reach, there will be a large number of stablecoins, including segmented business scenario stablecoins and decentralized interest-bearing stablecoins, among others.

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