Today's market has two main factors. First, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has entered a relatively fragile ceasefire phase, and the market generally expects that the Strait of Hormuz will not be blocked. This continues yesterday's judgment, and the addition of the ceasefire agreement has further relaxed market sentiment, driving up BTC.

Secondly, the hearing attended by Powell had relatively little information, which can be summarized as follows: The main reason for not lowering interest rates is the inflation pressure brought by tariffs. A rate cut in July is almost off the table, but September may become a window for policy adjustment. The U.S. economy remains robust, with a strong job market, and the Federal Reserve does not need to ease employment pressure through rate cuts.

Overall, as long as the ceasefire agreement does not break down and oil prices remain stable, the current trend of BTC remains optimistic, but we still need to be cautious of potential volatility brought by geopolitical risks.

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