Last week (June 17 - June 23), influenced by geopolitical factors and uncertainties in monetary policy, market sentiment fluctuated, and BTC prices experienced significant volatility. Affected by Trump's statements and the rising geopolitical risk index, BTC prices oscillated downwards from a weekly high of $108,952.38 to $98,200, with a notable market panic and a maximum decline of 9.8% during the week. Following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, market sentiment changed rapidly, with BTC leading the rise, briefly breaking through $106,000, and increasing by 4.33% within 24 hours, stabilizing around $105,291. (Binance Spot, June 24, 15:30).
Market Interpretation
After the Geopolitical Storm, Safe-Haven Demand Rises; Gold Outlook on Fiscal Deficit in the Medium to Long Term
In mid-June, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East sharply cooled global risk appetite. BTC prices quickly fell below $100,000, with a liquidation amount of up to $1.16 billion within 24 hours, affecting over 250,000 investors. High-volatility assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies faced collective pressure, with significant capital flowing into safe-haven assets.
With the ceasefire agreement reached, market risk sentiment quickly recovered, with BTC rebounding 4.5% in 24 hours, and U.S. stocks also rebounding, but gold's performance was more influenced by the U.S. fiscal situation and confidence in the dollar. Bank of America predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000/ounce in the next year, driven primarily by the ongoing expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, pressure on the dollar's status, and global central banks increasing their gold holdings.
Currently, global central bank holdings of gold have risen to 18% of U.S. public debt, while gold's share in global reserves has increased to 20%. If there is an oversupply of U.S. Treasuries and the deficit is difficult to rein in, gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation value will continue to attract capital.
Middle East Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, BTC Rebounds Above $106,000
In mid-June, the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, causing the global geopolitical risk index to soar to 158, leading BTC to fall below $100,000 and triggering $1.16 billion in liquidations across the network. On June 24, after both parties reached a ceasefire agreement, risk sentiment quickly recovered, with BTC rebounding 4.5% in 24 hours, returning to $106,000, while ETH and SOL rose 5%-7% simultaneously, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 3% in a single day.
As of June 23, BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.3 billion over five days, indicating a recovery in institutional confidence. Derivative funding rates turned positive, with bulls dominating the market. The ceasefire eliminated the largest short-term uncertainty, and BTC, possessing characteristics of both a "risk asset" and "digital gold," will focus on the resistance at $108,000 and macro variables in the future.
Powell's Hawkish Remarks: Tariffs Become a New Inflation Risk, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Face Challenges
The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with Chairman Powell unusually emphasizing the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation during a press conference, warning that Trump's new tariffs could continue to push prices higher. Powell clearly stated that he would not consider easing until there is "sufficient confidence" in a decline in inflation, reinforcing expectations of "high rates lasting longer."
Although the Fed's dot plot still indicates room for two rate cuts in 2025, the market generally interprets this as "verbal reassurance," with real policy guidance leaning hawkish. As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices retreated, bond yields fluctuated more intensely, and market concerns about "stagflation" risks increased.
For the cryptocurrency market, short-term liquidity is under pressure, and a stronger dollar suppresses the performance of risk assets. However, in the long term, if tariffs continue to push inflation higher, the "digital gold" attributes and safe-haven demand for cryptocurrencies like BTC may regain market attention. In the coming months, Fed policy and inflation data will continue to dominate market expectations, with significant macro uncertainty rising.
Circle's Stock Price Soars, Stablecoin Regulatory Bill Passed by Senate Boosts Post-Listing Increase Over 540%
Last week, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill with a high vote, marking an important milestone in the regulatory process for the cryptocurrency industry. Driven by this positive news, the stock price of leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) surged 34% in a single day, reaching a post-market high of $211.87, with a cumulative increase of over 540% since its listing on June 5, and a market capitalization exceeding $48 billion. The market generally expects that CRCL's trading volume surged to 60 million shares that day, with investors full of anticipation for regulatory dividends.
With the bill establishing compliance standards, Circle and its flagship dollar stablecoin USDC are expected to benefit first, further accelerating the trend of stablecoin mainstreaming. The exclusive dollar account feature launched by Matrixport provides global users with one-click account opening, convenient transfers, and efficient settlement services, offering strong support for institutions and individuals to comply with the allocation of dollar stablecoin assets. In the face of a new round of regulatory dividends in the stablecoin industry, how to manage dollar assets compliantly and efficiently has become a new focus for global capital.
Market Highlights
BTC Options Quarterly Expiration Approaches, Deribit Data Shows Maximum Pain Point at $100,000
This Friday, Deribit will see the largest BTC options expiration of the quarter, valued at up to $14 billion. The current put/call ratio is 0.7, indicating an overall neutral to bullish market sentiment. The maximum pain point is at $100,000, meaning that option holders at this price level will incur the least overall loss.
U.S. Senate Passes GENIUS Bill with High Votes, Stablecoin Regulation Sees Substantial Progress
In mid-June, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill with a vote of 68:30, establishing a clear framework for the compliance regulation of dollar-pegged stablecoins. The bill received broad bipartisan support and has been sent to the House of Representatives for review. The new bill will impose strict reserve, transparency, and compliance requirements on stablecoin issuers, covering mainstream dollar stablecoins like USDC and USDT, signaling that "digital dollars" will receive formal recognition from the state, providing long-term support for BTC.
Approval Probability for Multi-Asset Spot Crypto ETFs Increases Significantly, Market Sentiment Clearly Warms
According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has become more positive about the approval of various spot cryptocurrency ETFs for XRP, SOL, DOGE, LTC, ADA, and others. Analysts have raised the approval probability for these mainstream asset ETFs to 90% or higher, believing that the SEC has shown a higher willingness to cooperate. The only exception is SUI, which has a 60% approval probability due to regulatory uncertainties.
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