Original Title: "Can Trump Facilitate a Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran? The Cryptocurrency Market Changes Overnight"
Original Author: Bright, Foresight News
Editor's Note: On the morning of June 24, after Trump claimed that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, the Israeli military again stated that Iran had recently launched missiles at Israel. The future direction of Israel-Iran relations remains unclear.
On the morning of June 24, as Trump announced that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, the cryptocurrency secondary market rebounded after a night of fear over escalating war. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 before rising to break through the $106,000 mark, with many altcoins also seizing the opportunity to recover. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, BTC has been in a continuous correction for nearly a week, hitting a low of $98,200 yesterday and quickly rebounding to $106,075 today, with an increase of over 8.02%.
However, the latest news indicates that Iran has denied reaching a substantive ceasefire agreement, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is reported to be around $105,000.
ETH performed relatively weakly after a broad decline, failing to return to the previous $2,500 support level. After hitting a low of $2,111 yesterday, ETH rebounded to $2,440, an increase of over 15.58%. SOL showed a relatively strong recovery, rising to $147 after hitting a low of $121 yesterday, with an increase of 21.48%. However, it may face significant selling pressure from large holders due to a cooling on-chain market, and SOL still has considerable room to reach the recent high of $187.71.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has rebounded over 6% from its low, rising to $3.3 trillion. As risk aversion eased and altcoins collectively rebounded, Bitcoin's market share slightly decreased from its high to 63.49%, but the altcoin season index remains at a low of 14, and the fear and greed index has dropped to a fearful 37. During the same period, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher overall. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.96%, closing at 6025.17 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.89%, closing at 42581.78 points. The Nasdaq rose by 0.94%, closing at 19630.98 points. Among U.S. cryptocurrency stocks, Circle hit a new high, breaking through $298.41 during trading, having risen over 9.62 times from its issue price of $31, before closing at $263.45. Coinbase saw a slight drop of 0.26% after a rise, stabilizing its stock price at the $300 mark, closing at $307.59. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy continued its downward trend, falling 0.68% to close at $367.18.
In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass, over 135,600 people were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $495 million, including $380 million in short liquidations and $115 million in long liquidations, primarily from short positions. The largest single liquidation on CEX was ETH-USDT, occurring on Binance, valued at $12.1423 million.
Recently, the movements of risk assets like Bitcoin have been closely related to the Israel-Iran conflict. Last night, the "loud thunder but little rain" scenario between Iran and the U.S. significantly affected market risk aversion. Subsequently, the lack of substantial damage to U.S. military bases and Iran's relatively "weak" retaliatory actions contributed to a slight rebound in risk assets. This morning, the joint confirmation of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by Israel, Iran, and the U.S. temporarily marked a pause in the geopolitical uncertainties in the Gulf region, leading to a continued warming of risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the latest statements from Iran have raised concerns about the sustainability of this "peace."
A Night of Tension in the Gulf
Iran: Launched "Destructive and Powerful" Missiles at U.S. Military Base in Qatar
On the evening of June 23 local time, and in the early hours of June 24 Beijing time, Iranian media reported that Iran announced missile attacks against U.S. military bases in Iraq and Qatar. At the same time, explosions were heard in Doha, the capital of Qatar, with U.S. media reporting that Iran launched multiple missiles at the U.S. military base located in Qatar.
The Al Udeid Air Base, located about 35 kilometers southwest of Doha, is the most modern military base of the U.S. in the Gulf region and one of the largest overseas military bases of the U.S., with over 10,000 U.S. soldiers deployed there.
Subsequently, the Iranian armed forces issued a statement announcing missile strikes on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar. The statement claimed that this action was a response to the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and executed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The statement emphasized that the Iranian armed forces launched "destructive and powerful" missiles at the U.S. military base in Qatar.
At the same time, the secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that in response to the U.S. aggression against Iran's nuclear facilities, the Iranian armed forces launched a fierce attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar that night. The number of missiles used was the same as the number of bombs used by the U.S. during its attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the targeted U.S. military base was far from residential areas and urban infrastructure in Qatar. The statement emphasized that this action would not pose any threat to Iran's friendly nation, Qatar, and that Iran remains committed to maintaining its long-standing friendly relations with Qatar.
Qatar: Successfully Intercepted 19 Missiles Targeting Al Udeid Air Base, No Casualties
After Iran confirmed the missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar on the 23rd, the Qatari Ministry of Defense issued a statement confirming that the Qatari air defense system successfully intercepted 19 missiles targeting the Al Udeid Air Base that day, with no casualties reported.
Qatar also stated that the Al Udeid Air Base had been fully evacuated before the Iranian attack.
U.S. Side: Trump Entered the White House Situation Room, Stated No Desire for More Military Involvement in the Middle East
On the afternoon of June 23, during U.S. stock market trading, U.S. government officials stated that Trump met with the Secretary of Defense and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the White House Situation Room. Two informed officials revealed that the U.S. was tracking multiple missiles launched by Iran at U.S. military facilities in Qatar and Iraq.
The U.S. side stated that there were no casualties from the Iranian attack on the U.S. base in Qatar and that "no attacks on U.S. bases in other countries by Iran have been recorded" aside from Qatar.
Subsequently, a senior White House official reported that Trump did not wish for more U.S. military involvement in the Middle East.
A Peace That Was Long Agreed Upon?
Trump: No Americans Were Injured in the Iranian Attack, Perhaps Iran Can Begin to Achieve Peace
Before the close of the U.S. stock market on Monday, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating that Iran's response to the U.S. destroying its nuclear facilities was "very weak" and "thanks to Iran for notifying the U.S. in advance."
According to CCTV News, Trump stated on his social platform, "Iran's formal response to the U.S. destroying its nuclear facilities is very weak, which was expected in the U.S." Trump claimed, "Iran launched 14 missiles, of which 13 were intercepted, and 1 flew in a non-threatening direction. No Americans were injured, and there was almost no damage."
At the same time, Trump's post mentioned that due to Iran's advance notice, there were no injuries to U.S. personnel. Since Iran has responded to the attack on its nuclear facilities, "I hope there will be no more hatred in the future." He also said, "Perhaps Iran can now begin to achieve peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same."
Trump: Israel and Iran Have Agreed to a Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement
President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement aimed at ending a military conflict that has lasted 12 days, severely impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and causing turmoil in global markets. Reports indicate that senior Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran has agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Israel, mediated by Qatar and proposed by the U.S.
However, it is reported that on the 24th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu requested cabinet members not to comment on the recent developments, namely "Trump's announcement of Israel and Iran agreeing to a comprehensive ceasefire," until further notice. The latest news indicates that the Iranian foreign minister stated that there is currently no "agreement" between Israel and Iran regarding a ceasefire or cessation of military actions, but they are willing to stop at this point.
Fed's Dovish Tone Reemerges
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman expressed support for a potential rate cut as early as July. Bowman pointed out that data shows tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy. The impact of tariffs on inflation may experience greater delays and be smaller than initially expected, especially since many businesses have stocked up in advance. Ongoing progress in trade and tariff negotiations has significantly reduced risks in the economic environment. Changes in trade policy may have only a minimal impact on the Fed's preferred inflation indicators. In contrast, the risks in the labor market may be rising.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of significant inflationary pressure, which may allow the Fed to consider cutting rates again. He recalled that the Fed had anticipated a rate cut at the beginning of the year but paused due to policy uncertainty.
Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded significantly after a brief dip, moving away from the dangerous platform area of $97,000. Trader Eugene stated that BTC successfully held the $100,000 mark, and he expects this to be the peak of panic triggered by the entire Middle East situation. Currently, BTC prices are maintained in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, and if the market gradually diminishes the impact of geopolitical conflicts, it is expected to challenge the upper end of this range.
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