Original｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）
Author｜Wenser（@wenser2010）
As the news of the U.S. raid on Iranian nuclear facilities spreads, the crypto market has once again experienced a sharp decline, with BTC briefly falling below the $100,000 mark and ETH dropping below $2,300. Thus, a bull market for the bears may have already begun.
In recent days, both individual traders and institutions that have shorted the market are almost all in profit, with many traders proudly voicing their success, claiming to have "turned the tables."
Currently, the market remains in a state of panic selling and slight rebounds due to geopolitical conflicts. Odaily Planet Daily will explore the duration and key influencing factors of the "bear bull market" in this article for readers' reference. Note: This is merely a sharing of perspectives and does not constitute investment advice.
Bear Bull Market vs. Volatile Traps: Can You Make Money Just by Shorting?
In the increasingly tense situation between Israel and Iran, BTC, once considered a safe-haven asset, has now become part of the global economy. The phrase "Israel-Iran conflict, wallets pay the price" has become a self-deprecating joke among many in the crypto community. In this market situation, the shorting group is the small group that is reaping substantial profits.
"Air Force Leader" Strikes: Shorting 16 Tokens, Floating Profit of Nearly $10 Million
On June 20, a "bear leader" on Hyperliquid who shorted 16 altcoins reported a cumulative profit of approximately $9.68 million, significantly higher than last week's $3.56 million. At that time, 15 of the 16 positions were in profit, with the only losing position, HYPE, having its losses narrowed to $1.92 million, and the overall position value was about $53.3 million.
It is worth mentioning that this whale partially closed positions in ETH, PEPE, INIT, and XRP on June 17, locking in some profits.
https://hyperdash.info/zh-CN/trader/0xa312114b5795dff9b8db50474dd57701aa78ad1e
Currently, this address has withdrawn $1.34 million, with floating profits still reaching $9.27 million. Notably, the only token causing losses is HYPE, which currently has a floating loss of about $1.7 million.
Coincidentally, there is more than one "bear leader."
"Bear Whales/Institutions": Shorting 58 Tokens, Floating Profit Exceeds $20 Million
Since June 16, a certain whale/institution has embarked on its "bear journey"—shorting 58 cryptocurrencies on Hyperliquid, including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, PEPE, FARTCOIN, DOGE, AAVE, and HYPE. Currently, this address has a floating profit of $21.34 million, with a position size of $77.79 million. Among the 58 short positions, only two are in loss: HYPE (floating loss of about $4.28 million) and AAVE (floating loss of about $16,000); the best performer is ETH, with a floating profit of $4.438 million.
https://hyperdash.info/zh-CN/trader/0x45d26f28196d226497130c4bac709d808fed4029
Smart Money in ETH: Shorting at the Top, Floating Profit Exceeds $20 Million
In addition to the "mindless shorting" bear leaders, this shorting frenzy also includes "smart money players" in ETH.
According to LookonChain monitoring, a certain smart money player who bought ETH at the bottom has executed nearly flawless operations over the past month, consistently closing positions before significant drops in ETH and shorting at the top, previously making a staggering $20 million. Currently, this address has a cumulative floating profit exceeding $21.75 million, with a position value of about $90 million.
https://hyperdash.info/trader/0xcB92C5988b1D4f145a7B481690051F03EaD23a13
Industry Insights: Data Statistics, Trader Opinions, U.S. Stock Market Altcoin Bull Market, Trump and Other "Instability Factors"
In the current market, industry insiders have shared their views on the ongoing downward volatility. Some base their opinions on data, while others focus on macro-level risks. Some believe that the previous listing of Circle and the U.S. stock market altcoin bull market have affected the liquidity of the crypto market to some extent, combined with various "instability factors" stemming from U.S. President Trump's controversial actions.
Data Statistics: Number of Tokens at New Lows Reaches 294 in Six Months
According to crypto KOL @zxw018018, in a recent statistic of the top 1,000 trading volume tokens: only 9 tokens reached new highs in six months; while the number of tokens at new lows reached as high as 294. He personally believes this is a significant indication of "altcoins continuously going to zero."
Trader James Wynn: Increasing Short Positions, Short-Term Target for BTC is $93,000 to $95,000
Previously known for going long on BTC and later for high-frequency trading, trader James Wynn recently stated that he has "increased his short positions" and set a short-term target price for Bitcoin at $93,000 to $95,000.
He pointed out that in the context of more countries potentially joining the conflict, the market has not fully reflected the real risks. Additionally, there are no expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S., and the so-called bullish logic relies solely on global liquidity expansion, which does not stem from the dollar system. Furthermore, he proposed a conspiracy theory, suggesting that the U.S. government may wish to force Bitcoin to drop through some "black swan event" to create an opportunity for itself to build positions at lower prices. (Of course, this is purely subjective speculation.)
The U.S. raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has indeed intensified external speculation about the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and the market's "voting with their feet" downward trend.
U.S. Stock Market Altcoin Bull Market: BTC Reserve Camp Expands, Circle Leads Stablecoin Sector
Another significant factor impacting the crypto market is the U.S. stock market following the approval of BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
On one hand, the "coin hoarding strategy" of Strategy has been successfully validated by listed companies like Metaplanet, becoming a popular tactic for many listed companies to reserve funds and boost stock prices, further influencing the potential scale of outside capital inflow into the crypto market; on the other hand, Circle, which has strongly entered the U.S. stock market with the concept of "the first stablecoin stock," and the SRM company from the reverse merger of TRON, have become the "altcoin kings" in the U.S. stock market, leading the recent altcoin bull market.
Current Status of Coin Hoarding by U.S. Listed Companies
Surprisingly to many in the crypto community, Circle's stock price has skyrocketed to nearly $260, which has, to some extent, created a "siphoning effect" on the altcoin market, further shrinking liquidity.
Trump Fuels Intensified Local Hot Wars, U.S. on the Brink of War Quagmire
As for Trump, he is undoubtedly a significant disruptor in the current Israel-Iran conflict.
On June 20, the U.S. White House's stance on Iran was: President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to take military action against Iran.
Just two days later, Trump boldly stated to the public that the U.S. military had completed strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, with Fordow being the primary target and all munitions deployed.
Such a repeatedly changing political attitude and decisive military strikes have further intensified the tension in the Israel-Iran situation in the Middle East. The latest news indicates that Iran plans to close the oil transport chokepoint—the Strait of Hormuz. This move has been approved by the Iranian parliament but still awaits the final decision from the Supreme Security Council.
Moreover, Trump has even shouted the slogan "MIGA" (Make Iran Great Again), suggesting that the Iranian authorities should consider a regime change.
It must be said that Trump's background as a businessman means that the psychological pressure of waging war is far less than that of politicians like Biden, and the serious consequences he causes may require the crypto market and the global economic system to pay the price.
Conclusion: Short-term Market Recovery Still Depends on U.S. Attitude, Currently in a Pessimistic State
Overall, the signs of a "shitcoin G" in the crypto market have long been apparent, and the Israel-Iran conflict, along with the U.S. direct withdrawal, is undoubtedly a catalyst for this outcome. The short-term market recovery still primarily relies on subsequent statements and actions from the U.S., especially Trump's remarks and actions.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio previously stated that he has opened long positions in Bitcoin and some altcoins, believing that "the U.S. bombing actions, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," are a continuous blow to early bulls, which is enough to wash out positions, and now is the time to "buy on dips."
However, whether Trump can replicate his actions from April—"first initiating a tariff trade war, then making favorable statements to save the market"—remains uncertain.
Perhaps, for most people, limited shorting is a more cost-effective choice than mindless longing.
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