Someone asked me what I believe in, and I said I only believe in time. Because in this world, only time does not deceive, only time can prove everything, what is real and what is fake. For example, when observing people, do not rely on your eyes, as it is easy to be misled; do not rely on your ears either, because they are all lies. Only use time and your heart to feel; the truth cannot be disguised, and the false cannot become real! Therefore, my favorite saying is: time will leave behind the truest people.
Recently, the market has been prone to sudden and unexpected events. Last night, influenced by market news, the bears struck again, causing Bitcoin to drop to a recent low of around 98,200. The market was bleak, but then the market rebounded in the early morning, currently running above 101,500. Unfortunately, our long positions also became collateral damage in this round of decline. After taking profits on short positions above 108,000 and opening long positions after hitting 101,000, a friend asked why we didn't take profits on the long position that rebounded to above 103,000. This long position was placed as a limit order in the early morning, and the peak was also reached in the early morning. As we previously analyzed, after the market dipped, our primary expectation was to see a range of 100,000 to 110,000 oscillate. Therefore, we repeatedly emphasized looking for a rebound with 100,000 as support, but the final result did not go well. The bearish force, aided by market news, completed the downward move, leading to our long positions being stopped out.
Returning to today's market, in terms of liquidity liquidation, with yesterday's drop, the long liquidity that was previously above 100,000 has basically been cleared. Currently, there is still some long liquidation strength around 97,500, and below that is the long-term long positions around 95,800. On the upside, bearish liquidity has formed again in the range of 103,500 to 104,000, which is a key position for a strong rebound after the current rebound. In fact, yesterday's market was somewhat speechless; after breaking below 100,000, we initially thought the long liquidity around 97,500 would trigger a chain liquidation. After clearing 97,500, it was the target position we expected to re-enter long positions, but the market began to rebound around 98,200, accompanied by an increase in the spot premium rate, indicating that after the drop, the buying power from the spot side raised the coin price. This brings us back to the first drop below 101,000 the day before, which was also driven by buying power from the spot market. Regarding this buying power from the spot market, many institutional funds in the crypto space come from the Middle East, where the risk aversion sentiment is stronger. Moving forward, we will see if the bearish liquidity above will be cleared.
On the technical side, at the weekly level, the weekly K-line closed with a relatively large bearish candle, indicating strong downward pressure in the overall trend. Currently, the weekly line is below the MA7 line, clearly entering a weak cycle. From the weekly chart's shape, there is still a demand for further declines. The MACD is about to form a death cross above the zero axis; if this cross forms, it will enter a bearish adjustment cycle, and we will need to see where the support will be tested in the weekly adjustment.
On the daily chart, the structural bearish adjustment cycle has lasted for a long time. In fact, we had hoped for a rebound to emerge early on the daily chart, but this expectation has been delayed. As we have mentioned before, if this weak trend continues, the strength of future bullish rebounds will be significantly weakened. The MACD has been in a bearish convergence phase for a long time; currently, the bulls need to stand above 103,000 first. The four-hour level shows a clear oversold rebound trend. From the K-line structure and technical indicators, they support the operation of this rebound, and on the four-hour chart, we need to see how far the rebound can sustain.
In terms of operations, the market is currently in a rebound phase. The market may wait for the U.S. stock market to open in the evening, which could provide some trend guidance. In the short term, this rebound needs to exist, but it seems there is no suitable position to go long. A safer approach would be to place a limit order around 103,500 to set up a short position, and for short-term trading, wait for a slight pullback before participating in long positions. The best timing for operations is to wait until the evening.
The trend of Ethereum is similar to Bitcoin. In the short term, a long position can be considered around 2,230, with resistance above at 2,360-2,400. Currently, there are no obvious market signals in Ethereum's structure, so short-term trading should focus on quick entries and exits.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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