Fundamental Key Points

1. Geopolitical Risks Fluctuate: Iran launched long-range missiles at Israel, resulting in casualties. After Trump announced "war on Iran," he postponed action for two weeks. Geopolitical conflicts have temporarily eased, but uncertainty remains.

2. On-chain Data Weakens: Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume hit an 18-month low, with the concepts of Runes and Ordinals fading. The crypto market has entered a seasonally sluggish period.

BTC Technical Analysis

• Daily Pattern: The price is at the end of a converging triangle, with the $103,000 support level tested multiple times over the past month without breaking, indicating buying support. However, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts combined with the SEC's delay in approving spot ETFs increases the probability of a downward wedge. If the $103,000 level is lost, $95,000 (the starting point of the last upward trend) will become a key defensive level. Recent trading volume continues to shrink, and market sentiment is heavily cautious.

• 4-Hour Cycle: The price is oscillating in the $103,500-$105,500 range, with a focus on shorting opportunities at the $105,500-$106,500 resistance level and rebound signals at the $103,500-$102,500 support level.

ETH Trend Analysis

• Daily Structure: The K-line is moving down along the 7-day moving average, with the $2,480 support level and the blue trend line forming a triangular convergence, about to face a directional choice. The volume shows a "rise with shrinkage, fall with expansion" characteristic, indicating a clear dominance of bears.

• 4-Hour Cycle: The oscillation range of $2,480-$2,540 is nearing a breakout point, with the $2,480 support level in jeopardy. Focus on the $2,540-$2,570 resistance level during the day, with a risk of breaking the $2,480-$2,450 support level below.

Altcoin Strategy

After a rebound yesterday, altcoins fell back, with previous gains mostly retraced, necessitating caution against FOMO-driven high-risk chasing. The CNH stablecoin's linkage to U.S. Treasury bonds is heating up the RWA (Real World Asset) sector, with attention on major coins like ONDO, MKR, and AAVE, but it is recommended to remain cautious and wait for clear strengthening signals.

Market volatility is increasing, and operations need strict position control. The above analysis is for thought sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.

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June 20th Feige's In-depth Analysis: The Cryptocurrency Market Crisis Intertwined with Geopolitical Conflicts and Technical Breakdowns

1. Comprehensive Fundamental Scan

1. Geopolitical Powder Keg Ignited Again
   Iran launched long-range heavy missiles at Israel, hitting key facilities and causing multiple casualties. The Trump administration announced "war on Iran" but later postponed action for two weeks, putting the Middle East situation in a high-risk phase. Historical data shows that during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin's "digital gold" safe-haven attributes are often overshadowed by selling pressure — during the first week of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, BTC fell 12% in a single day. The current market's digestion of "war premiums" remains uncertain.

2. On-chain Ecosystem Frozen
   Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume has dropped to an 18-month low, with an average daily transfer amount of only $19.7 billion, a 63% decrease from the Ordinals craze in May 2024. The minting volume of Runes inscriptions has decreased by 82% week-on-week, and the frequency of smart contract interactions has dropped by 47%, indicating a retreat in market speculation. Glassnode data shows that the growth rate of non-zero addresses has fallen to 2.3%, the lowest since May 2020, reflecting a lack of willingness for new capital to enter.

2. In-depth BTC Technical Breakdown

1. Daily Level: Converging Triangle Hides Danger
   The price has been forming a converging triangle in the $103,000-$109,500 range, which has been in play for 28 trading days, with volatility narrowing to 1.8% (ATR indicator down to 0.95). It is worth noting that the lower boundary of the triangle at $103,000 coincides with the bottom of the large bearish candle on June 17, forming a "technical-psychological" double support. However, bearish factors are currently dominating market logic:

   • The U.S. SEC has once again delayed the approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, extending the "regulatory vacuum period";

   • Institutional holding data shows that the Grayscale BTC Trust premium rate has dropped to -18.7%, a six-month low, indicating a lack of confidence among professional investors.

   If the $103,000 level breaks, the next target will be $95,000 — this position is the starting point of the upward trend in October 2024 and also the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, which is expected to trigger programmatic selling.

2. 4-Hour Cycle: Narrow Oscillation Awaits Direction
   The price has formed a rectangular consolidation in the $103,500-$105,500 range, with trading volume below $3 billion for five consecutive trading days, indicating strong caution from both bulls and bears. The MACD indicator has shown a top divergence signal (price highs rising while indicator highs fall), and the RSI has repeatedly crossed the neutral zone at 50, suggesting an increased probability of a breakout in the short term. Day trading strategies can adopt a "short high, buy low" approach:

   • Short positions can be set at the $105,500-$106,500 resistance level, with a stop loss at $107,000 and a target of $103,000;

   • Light long positions can be attempted at the $103,500-$102,500 support level, with a stop loss at $102,000 and a target of $105,000.

3. ETH Trend and Volume Game

1. Daily Pattern: Life-and-Death Battle at Triangle End
   The K-line continues to move down along the 7-day moving average, with the $2,480 support level and the blue upward trend line forming a "critical triangle," which is a multiple bottom support since December 2024. The volume structure shows significant differentiation: in the last 10 trading days, the average daily trading volume during price increases was $1.2 billion, while during declines it reached $2.3 billion, indicating a clear dominance of bears in market rhythm. If the $2,480 level is lost, the next targets below will be $2,343 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level) and $2,215 (March 2025 low).

2. 4-Hour Cycle: Oscillation Space Nearly Exhausted
   The price has oscillated in the $2,480-$2,540 range for 36 hours, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to 0.8%, indicating an imminent breakout. Capital flow shows that the ETH futures funding rate has dropped to -0.03% in the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for 58%, indicating a pessimistic sentiment in the derivatives market. Day trading suggestions include:

   • Shorting in the $2,540-$2,570 range on rebounds, with a stop loss at $2,600 and a target of $2,480;

   • If it breaks below $2,480, shorting can be pursued, targeting $2,450-$2,400, with a stop loss at $2,500.

4. Altcoin Strategy and Sector Opportunities

1. FOMO Traps and Risk Warnings
   After a broad rise in altcoins yesterday, they quickly fell back, with the MEME sector averaging a 42% retracement, indicating that short-term capital is still primarily speculative. Notably, the CNH stablecoin's linkage to U.S. Treasury bonds has led to a rise in the RWA (Real World Asset) sector:

   • ONDO token rose 18% in 24 hours, with its issued USDT U.S. Treasury fund exceeding $500 million;

   • MKR, as the governance token of MakerDAO, has re-entered the top 20 in market capitalization due to the protocol's integration of U.S. Treasury collateral;

   • AAVE has seen a 37% week-on-week increase in on-chain locked assets due to the launch of the RWA lending market.

2. Operational Suggestions
   It is recommended to pay attention to leading coins in the RWA sector but to wait for clear signals:

   • Technical: Closing price stabilizes above the 5-day moving average with trading volume increasing by more than 1.5 times;

   • Fundamental: Project parties publish proof of U.S. Treasury holdings or new cooperation agreements.
     Spot investors can gradually build positions on dips, while contract traders are advised to wait for clear trends before entering to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

5. Risk Control and Market Outlook

The current market is in a triple bearish environment of "geopolitical conflict + regulatory suppression + on-chain sluggishness," and investors need to strengthen their risk awareness:

• Position Management: Spot holdings should not exceed 50%, and contract margin rates should be maintained above 30%;

• Stop Loss Settings: BTC should decisively stop loss if it breaks below $102,500, and ETH below $2,450;

• Event Tracking: Focus on Trump's policy announcement on Iran on June 28 and the SEC's latest ruling on spot ETFs on July 1.

Market volatility is increasing, and the above analysis is based on current data projections, not constituting any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and decisions should be made in conjunction with one's own risk tolerance.

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