Today's Federal Reserve meeting was overall neutral. Powell reiterated that interest rate cuts will depend on data, and the dot plot still indicates two expected rate cuts in 2025, which is better than some pessimistic market expectations, leading to a rebound in the probability of a rate cut in September. He emphasized that geopolitical conflicts and tariffs are indeed raising inflationary pressures, but believes that the impact of oil prices is more short-term. The U.S. economy remains resilient, and the labor market has not shown an urgent need for rate cuts.

Regarding BTC, the turnover rate has slightly increased, mainly due to short-term investors responding to geopolitical risks, but the holding range of $93,000-$98,000 remains solid, indicating that the market is not in panic. The upper range of $100,500-$105,000 continues to accumulate, and we need to be cautious of short-term risks brought by excessive concentration. The market's focus will soon return to the evolution of the geopolitical situation.

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