Geopolitical conflicts have become the main theme of the market, with oil prices reacting first. As the situation in the Middle East escalates, the rise in oil prices has intensified inflation expectations. Although energy is not included in the core CPI, for an economy like the United States, oil prices affect a wide range of areas such as transportation and services, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's policy space.

If the United States is further dragged into the conflict, not only will the pressure on the fiscal deficit increase sharply, but it may also withdraw market liquidity through bond issuance, putting pressure on risk assets. Therefore, oil prices have become an effective signal for tracking the progress of the war, especially as the weekend approaches and liquidity weakens, any sudden news could exacerbate market volatility.

In the past two days, the price of $BTC has experienced increased volatility, leading some loss-making investors to choose to exit, but long-term holders remain steadfast and show little interest in short-term market trends. Chips are gradually clustering above $105,000. If accumulation continues, the market may once again face a choice of direction.

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