US May CPI Data Below Expectations, Crypto Market Briefly Rallies Before Pullback
The US Department of Labor released data on Wednesday (June 11) showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose by 0.1% month-on-month in May, a decrease from the 0.2% increase in April, and below the 0.2% expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. Core inflation remained at 2.8%, unchanged from April. Among them, the CPI for durable goods fell by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 1.3% year-on-year.
Since most durable goods are imported or contain a large amount of imported components, this data indicates that the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have not yet fully passed on to end consumers.
Following the release of the latest CPI data, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle within the year, although the timing of the first rate cut may be delayed.
Next week, the Federal Reserve will hold its June monetary policy meeting. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) "FedWatch" tool, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the June meeting has risen to 100%, up from 99.8% before the data was released. As for the July meeting, the market expects an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold, while the possibility of implementing a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.5%.
After the latest inflation data was released, the crypto market saw a brief rise overnight. Bitcoin (BTC) price peaked at $110,396; Ethereum (ETH) approached $2,900, reaching a high of $2,879; other altcoins also followed with a general increase.
However, this surge did not last, and the market saw a pullback on Thursday. As of 5 PM on Thursday, Bitcoin's price hovered around $107,600, maintaining its dominant position in the market despite increased volatility; Ripple (XRP) briefly touched a two-week high of $2.3368 during Wednesday's trading session before retreating to around $2.24; Dogecoin (DOGE) initially broke through the $0.20 mark but had expanded its decline to 1.5% by Thursday, trading at $0.19.
US-China Negotiations and CPI Data Fail to Stabilize Confidence, Crypto Market Enters Adjustment Phase
From a news perspective, the downward shift in the crypto market is mainly influenced by the deadlock in US-China trade negotiations. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public statements have led the market to lose hope for a short-term agreement, quickly raising risk-averse sentiment and putting pressure on global risk assets.
Scott stated during a hearing on Wednesday that the preliminary agreement reached between the US and China is a step towards balanced trade, but he also emphasized, "We still have to wait and see" if the other side can become a more reliable trading partner.
Although the latest May CPI data was slightly below expectations, the ongoing burden of US debt remains a "sword of Damocles" hanging over the market, leading investors to maintain a cautious attitude overall.
Dr. Kirill Kretov, an analyst at the automated cryptocurrency trading platform CoinPanel, pointed out: "The latest US CPI data shows inflation slightly below expectations, which briefly raised hopes for a slowdown in inflation. However, macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, and in the current context of relatively weak market liquidity, participants with strong capital can still easily drive significant price fluctuations."
Data shows that over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen liquidations exceeding $683 million in contract positions, with long positions accounting for as much as $618 million, reflecting an excessive concentration of leveraged long positions in the market, further amplifying downward pressure.
Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen below the critical technical support level of $3.35 trillion, triggering stop-loss mechanisms and automatic sell-offs in programmatic trading, leading to collective pressure on major crypto assets and accelerating the market pullback. Overall, the dual impact of technical and sentiment factors has made the short-term market trend more fragile.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Experts Remain Optimistic, May Challenge $250,000 Within the Year
Despite recent volatility, the market remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's price forecast for June. Mainstream analysts believe Bitcoin will fluctuate between $100,000 and $120,000, with its price currently stabilizing above key index moving averages and maintaining a long-term bullish structure.
Analysis from Bitfinex suggests that in a bullish scenario, Bitcoin's price could reach $115,000 by early July; while Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat, has given the most aggressive prediction, suggesting that Bitcoin could rise between $150,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year.
Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, also expects Bitcoin's price to break through the $200,000 mark within the year.
Mena emphasized in a written analysis with Coindesk: "If Bitcoin can effectively break through the key resistance range of $105,000 to $110,000, it is expected to quickly test the $120,000 level. More importantly, based on the current development trend, our year-end target price of $138,500 is likely to be achieved before the end of summer. If the current upward momentum continues to build, a challenge of $200,000 within the year is no longer an unattainable prediction."
Key Sectors to Watch: Who Will Stand Out in the Adjustment?
Although the overall crypto market faces adjustment pressure, some sectors still possess strong resilience and upward potential, which may benefit first in the next round of rebounds.
Firstly, Bitcoin-related sectors, due to their strong correlation with mainstream assets and high market recognition, may become the preferred choice for capital inflow. Secondly, projects that combine AI and blockchain, leveraging the AI boom, are expected to attract the attention of medium to long-term investors.
Additionally, tokenization projects for real-world assets (RWA) are becoming a new narrative direction in the crypto industry and may benefit from compliance trends in the future. Infrastructure tokens (such as on-chain data, cross-chain protocols, modular blockchains) are also expected to receive continuous funding support during the market reconstruction process.
Overall, sectors with strong fundamentals, practical application scenarios, and high capital attention are more likely to stand out in a volatile market.
Related: Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Hits Seven-Month High, BTC Approaches Historical Highs
Original: “US May CPI Unexpectedly Falls, Crypto Market Briefly Rallies Before Facing Correction Pressure”
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