Before today's non-farm payroll data, employment and unemployment figures should be the key data points each month. However, unless there is a significant rise in the unemployment rate before the tariffs officially take effect, it is unlikely to have any impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In the past week, several Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that as long as the tariffs (reciprocal) are not implemented, the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach.

Therefore, the market has lost hope for interest rate cuts before the third quarter, especially after the GDP data was released, which further reduced the probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession. In the short term, no analysts are discussing recession anymore.

Now, the unemployment rate data has returned to a situation where both good and bad data are considered good. A slight increase in the unemployment rate could raise expectations for a Fed rate cut without overly stimulating discussions about recession, while a decrease in the unemployment rate indicates that the U.S. economic situation is still good. Moreover, the Fed does not plan to cut rates prematurely, so a strong economy can also boost investors' risk appetite.

Next is the employment population; this data is certainly better the more there is, but its impact should not be significant as long as it does not fall significantly below expectations. Additionally, wage changes are important; wage growth indicates good economic performance. According to current market expectations, if it meets expectations, it could still boost investor sentiment.

Especially since Tesla's pre-market price is nearing $300, the market needs some positive news to calm the mood. Of course, if the non-farm data disappoints, it will be a tough weekend.

This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX

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