🧐 The Second Half of Stablecoins: The On-Chain Dollar Revolution Begins, Why is Pendle the Heart of the Trillion-Dollar Yield Market?

The U.S. Senate's GENIUS Stablecoin Bill is a recent topic worth paying attention to:

The stablecoin bill opens up the imagination for the next decade of #Crypto, meaning that the legal identity of stablecoins will be "formally recognized." They will no longer be "shadow dollars" in a gray area but financial instruments with clear compliance attributes.

This means that the growth space for stablecoins will no longer be just an internal cycle for crypto players but will truly face global capital, sovereign funds, and large-scale dollar demand exposure.

The media focuses on regulation, investors are concerned about dollar arbitrage, and policy experts focus on international games;

But I see opportunity. I believe the hidden protagonist in this play is actually: the on-chain yield market.

1⃣ The Second Half of Stablecoins is a Battle for Capital Efficiency

Looking back at the first half of stablecoins, it was a game of trust, circulation, and anchoring:

USDT, USDC, and DAI rose because they provided global users with a new type of digital tool for hedging, storing value, and transferring funds.

Today, there are $250 billion in stablecoins on-chain, but their capital efficiency is too low—

If you just keep USDT in a wallet or centralized platform, it is no different from keeping dollars in a bank account: static, passive, dead money.

Market transformation has quietly arrived—over the past 18 months, more and more yield-bearing stablecoins (like Ethena's sUSDe and Falcon's sUSDf) have emerged,

With the scale skyrocketing from < $1.5B to $11B, and market penetration increasing from 1% to 4.5%, expected to surge to 15% in the next two years.

It can be seen that the market has entered a completely different dimension:

Stablecoins are not just a store of value; they are on-chain yield machines, fuel for derivatives trading, and the cornerstone of structured capital operations.

This is the second half of stablecoins—transforming from "only used for transfers" to "actively participating in yield, interest rates, and capital flows."

So the question arises, having these assets alone is not enough:

-- Who will provide them with an efficient interest rate market?

-- Who will allow capital to circulate, derive, and redistribute between protocols?

-- Who will carry the systemic upgrade of the entire on-chain yield and leverage?

This link cannot be done by traditional stablecoin protocols, lending protocols, or DEXs.

But @pendle_fi can, because it is neither a counterparty to stablecoins nor a supplement, but a necessary financial bridge for stablecoins to "enter the next stage."

2⃣ Why is Pendle a Systemic Piece of the Puzzle?

I know some people still see Pendle as just a "high APR airdrop farm," but if you look at the data, you will see how Pendle has evolved—

✅ $4B TVL, with 83% coming from stablecoins

✅ 30% of the global yield-bearing stablecoin market's traffic is absorbed by Pendle

✅ Marketizing PT and YT, allowing capital players to price, trade, leverage, and hedge themselves

The essence of this operation is akin to using government bonds for collateralized lending, interest rate swaps, and credit derivatives in TradFi.

Seeing only this layer is far from enough, because I believe Pendle is likely to become a systemic winner under the stablecoin bill. Why?—

1) Incremental Stablecoins: The global stablecoin market has grown from a $1.5B yield-bearing share in 2024 to $11B now, with expectations to reach $75B in the next two years. Pendle currently captures 30% of that, representing a potential growth pool of $25B TVL.

2) Tooling Interest Rates: On-chain, past interest rates were "passive yields" (lending, staking), but Pendle has transformed it into "actively tradable tools." Just like U.S. Treasury rates and interest rate futures have become pricing anchors in global finance, Pendle could become the interest rate anchor for on-chain assets.

3) Systemic External Effects: Pendle is not a closed loop; it forms multi-layer nested effects with protocols like Aave and Morpho. For example, assets like PT-sUSDe can be directly used as collateral on Aave, leveraged, and then reinvested back into Pendle. This cross-protocol liquidity is the true pinnacle of capital efficiency.

4) Emerging Stablecoin Incubator: New stablecoin issuers like Ethena, Spark, and Open Eden have already made Pendle their go-to channel for launching liquidity, guiding the market, and attracting early users. In other words, Pendle is like an on-chain interest rate Nasdaq, incorporating various new stablecoin assets into a large liquidity pool.

In other words:

Pendle is no longer just a simple platform; it is the heart of the on-chain interest rate market, akin to CME, LCH, and Clearstream in the new generation of crypto finance.

3⃣ The Alpha Right in Front of Us—The Spark Pool is an Excellent Window Right Now

From a global perspective, let's return to the operational level: Pendle has dozens of stablecoin pools; what should we choose to mine?

Interested friends can check out @ViNc2453's tweet, which is very detailed: https://x.com/ViNc2453/status/1924394935530471840

Currently, what I am most interested in and observing is the newly opened Spark @sparkdotfi's USDS pool, for several reasons—

🔺 Spark itself is a sub-DAO of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), with deep experience in stablecoin systems, backed by $7B TVL and a whole stablecoin ecosystem.

🔺 The project has not yet launched its token; the only thing that can be mined is Spark Points, and currently, Pendle is the only platform that can directly mine these points.

🔺 PT yield is 8.8%, LP yield is 9.3% + 25x Spark Points. The YT-USDS line seems a bit dull: on the surface, the annualized yield appears almost zero, even negative, but the real key lies in—point exposure. The current base is 25x, and with leverage, it can reach 1000x exposure.

I believe the current Spark stablecoin pool is one of the better combinations of structural market potential and short-term alpha on the Pendle platform;

However, just having these numbers is not intuitive enough; let's simulate potential returns—

Currently, Spark has set aside a points pool specifically for Pendle activities, accounting for 1.2% of the total (about 120M $SPK tokens). With the speed of point accumulation, after 78 days (corresponding to the expiration of this round of point activities), Pendle users could receive about 142.6B points, and the final points after the safety net would be 261.2B points;

Assuming Spark's final FDV is reasonably expected to be between $250M and $1B—this translates to about $23 per million points, or about $0.04485 payout per YT.

The key point is that these points are completely independent and separate from the airdrop shares obtained through pre-farm activities (like Aave, Lend, etc.), directly belonging to the Genesis phase >1200M unallocated token pool, representing a relatively scarce new opportunity that many are still in an information blind spot.

But one thing to note is that buying YT requires you to have a long-term positive outlook on Spark's market recognition and point value.

If future actual yields fall below expectations, or if the project's points/token valuation significantly declines, the returns you receive may be lower than your costs, leading to a loss of principal. So DYOR, and choosing the right entry timing is crucial.

Recently, several PT/LP yield pools have all concentrated on expiration, so consider seamlessly transitioning funds to Spark—on the Dashboard, click on the expiring PT and LP assets to redeem, or directly roll over into the new Spark pool.

4⃣ Conclusion—

Thinking carefully, the true meaning of the GENIUS bill is not just to license stablecoins; behind this bill, the most worthwhile bets are not stablecoins themselves, but those infrastructure protocols that can activate, split, leverage, and circulate them.

The opportunity with Pendle is no longer just a high-yield pool or an airdrop gamble, but participating in a financial system-level experiment:

As the DeFi world transitions from asset stock expansion to capital structure optimization, who will be the central hub that can carry the entire liquidity upgrade?

I don't know if Pendle will be the ultimate winner, but I am confident it has already taken a seat at that table. If Uniswap and Aave are the first financial architectures in the crypto world, then Pendle is the central hub in the efficient operation of the second half.

So, if you are a long-term investor, it is best to put $PENDLE on your core observation list for the next three to five years, viewing it as a three-level resonance of global dollarization, free capital flow, and personal sovereignty; perhaps you will find it easier to understand and resonate with!

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