Original author: Haotian, crypto researcher
I just finished chatting with a few big names in the industry, and everyone is discussing the same thing… The theory of "a four-year cycle" is completely outdated! If you are still holding on to the hope of getting rich quickly, still fantasizing about "the opportunity to win tenfold or hundredfold in a bull market," you may have already been completely abandoned by the market. Why? Because smart money has long discovered a secret: the current Crypto landscape no longer applies a single strategy, but rather four completely different gameplay cycles are running simultaneously:
Each gameplay cycle has a completely different rhythm, strategy, and logic for making money.
Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, a Decade of Slow Bull May Be Set
The "script" of the traditional halving cycle? Completely ineffective! BTC has evolved from a "speculative target" to an "institutional allocation asset." The scale and allocation logic of funds from Wall Street, public companies, and ETFs are completely different from the retail investors' "bull-bear switching" strategy.
Where is the key change? Retail chips are being handed over on a large scale, while institutional funds, represented by MicroStrategy, are entering the market aggressively. This fundamental restructuring of chip distribution is redefining BTC's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.
What are retail investors facing? The dual squeeze of "time cost" and "opportunity cost." Institutions can endure a holding period of 3-5 years to wait for BTC's long-term value realization, but retail investors? Clearly, they cannot have such patience and capital allocation strength.
In my view, we are likely to see a BTC super slow bull that lasts for over ten years. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for how high BTC's price ceiling will reach? From the perspective of current retail investors, it is even difficult to predict.
MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Slum Paradise to Professional Harvesting Ground
The MEME long bull theory is also valid. During the technical narrative's performance gap, MEME narratives will always fill the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with emotions, funds, and attention.
What is the essence of MEME? It is a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." No white papers, no technical validation, no roadmaps—just a symbol that can make people smile or resonate is enough. From cat and dog culture to political MEMEs, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotional monetization" industrial chain.
The deadly part is that MEME's "short and quick" characteristic makes it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are tight, MEME turns into the last refuge for speculation. However, reality is harsh; the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is increasing exponentially. The story of young P sitting idly to create legends may become rarer, as the entry of studios, scientists, and large investors will make this once "slum paradise" intensely competitive.
Technical Narrative Leap Long Cycle: Bottom Fishing in the Valley of Death, 10x Start in 3 Years?
Has the technical narrative disappeared? Not at all. Innovations with real technical barriers, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, AI infrastructure, etc., require 2-3 years or even longer build time to see actual results. These projects follow the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle), not the emotional cycle of capital markets—there is a fundamental time misalignment between the two.
The reason the technical narrative is criticized by the market is that projects are given overly high valuations while still in the conceptual stage, and then undervalued during the "valley of death" stage when the technology truly begins to land. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.
For patient investors with technical judgment, laying out truly valuable technical projects during the "valley of death" stage may be the best strategy for obtaining excess returns. But the premise is that you must endure a long waiting period and market torment, as well as potential ridicule.
Innovative Small Hotspot Short Cycle: 1-3 Month Window, Brewing the Main Wave Narrative
Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate quickly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), with each small hotspot possibly having only a 1-3 month window. This fragmentation of narratives and high-frequency rotation reflects the current market's scarcity of attention and the dual constraints of capital rent-seeking efficiency. In fact, it is not difficult to find that typical small narrative cycles follow a six-stage model: "concept validation → capital testing → public opinion amplification → FOMO entry → valuation overextension → capital withdrawal." Want to profit in this model?
The key is to enter during the "concept validation" to "capital testing" stage and exit at the peak of "FOMO entry." The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game for attention resources. However, there is a technical correlation and conceptual progression between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) in AI Infra and the A2A (Agent-to-Agent) interaction standard are actually a technical underlying reconstruction of the AI Agent narrative. If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hotspots, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly solidify a sustainable value loop during the linkage process, it is very likely that a super narrative at the level of a main wave similar to DeFi Summer will emerge.
From the current small narrative landscape, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing, inference, data networks, and other underlying technologies can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to build a super narrative similar to "AI Summer."
In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is crucial to finding suitable strategies within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, the singular "four-year cycle" mindset can no longer keep up with the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple gameplay cycles running in parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.
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