Market Review: Strong Breakthrough at the $110,000 Mark, Market Enters "Institutional Trading" Dominated Phase
On the morning of May 22, Beijing time, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $110,000 barrier, reaching a high of $110,830, setting a new historical record. Since early May, Bitcoin has accumulated a rise of over 13%. From the candlestick pattern perspective, BTC has completed two rounds of volume breakthroughs in the past 10 trading days, continuously advancing along the 5-day EMA, forming a typical bullish arrangement structure, demonstrating strong upward momentum.
Technical Analysis: Candlestick Structure and Indicator Resonance, Short-Term Still Has Upward Momentum
- Candlestick Pattern: Breakthrough after forming a flag consolidation, targeting the $115,000 area
On the 4-hour chart, BTC formed a standard flag consolidation structure, confirming the breakout on the evening of May 21, accompanied by increased trading volume. The $110,000 integer level did not encounter significant selling pressure during the first test; instead, the trading volume was well-coordinated, indicating strong bullish confidence.
- Moving Average System: Bullish arrangement fully established, MA10 > MA30 > MA60
Currently, all short to medium-term moving averages of BTC present a standard "pyramid-type bullish arrangement," especially with MA10 and MA30 forming a clear "accelerated divergence" angle, confirming the trend's continuity.
MA200 ($106,831) serves as the bull-bear dividing line, far from the current price, and has not been tested for several days, indicating that the market is in a "strong trend" environment.
- Technical Indicators:
MACD: DIF (559.3) and DEA (496.1) continue to rise, the histogram has turned green again, indicating a recovery in momentum;
RSI: RSI(12) is at 69.7, on the edge of overbought but not in the extreme zone, still has upward space;
KDJ: J value has retreated from a high position but has not crossed, increasing the possibility of short-term consolidation;
OBV: OBV line has broken through historical highs, with significant capital inflow and good volume coordination;
Volume Profile (VPR): The $109,000–$107,000 range serves as a core support zone, with a large number of chips accumulating in this range, providing strong short-term support.
Large Capital Dynamics: Continuous Net Inflow from Main Players, On-Chain Wallet Activity Soars
On-Chain Data: According to Lookonchain and Arkham data, from May 20 to now, multiple whale wallets have successively transferred BTC assets to exchanges, with a total amount exceeding 13,000 BTC. The number of active on-chain addresses and non-zero balance wallets has reached a historical high, indicating bidirectional activity from retail and institutional investors.
ETF Inflows: According to SoSoValue statistics, on May 21, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds was approximately $120 million, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of positive inflow. The demand for ETF subscriptions from BlackRock (iShares) and Fidelity has surged, showing that traditional capital's acceptance of BTC continues to rise.
Macroeconomic Policy and Market Structure
- Stablecoin Legislation is Advancing, US Debt Pressure May Be Partially Absorbed by USDT and Others
According to Bloomberg, the US Congress is accelerating the review of the "Stablecoin Regulatory Framework," which allows issuers to expand their issuance scale by pledging US debt. Currently, Tether has become one of the top ten holders of short-term government bonds. Once the bill is passed, it means that BTC and other crypto assets will become an external driving force for the "US debt support mechanism."
The rise of BTC will not only be an issue within the crypto market itself but will also become part of the solution for the US Treasury.
The current market has shifted from a retail-driven speculative market to an institutional-driven structural market. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has already surpassed the levels seen at the beginning of the 2021 bull market, while on-chain data shows a trend of "returning to large holders."
The market has entered the mid-stage of a major upward wave, and it is highly likely that a "buy on dips" trend will emerge in the coming months.
Risk Warning: High-Position Fluctuations and Short-Term Corrections Cannot Be Ignored
Although the overall trend is upward, due to the continuous short-term surge, the following two types of risks should be guarded against:
RSI entering the overbought zone may lead to technical corrections at the 30-minute and 1-hour levels;
On-chain data and derivative market leverage rates are rising simultaneously, posing a risk of short-term liquidation;
Macroeconomic uncertainties (such as fluctuating Federal Reserve attitudes and stalled stablecoin legislation) may also trigger severe volatility.
Therefore, for medium to short-term traders, it is particularly crucial to monitor whether the $109,000 support can hold.
Conclusion: BTC is Becoming Part of the Structural Solution for the US Treasury
The current wave of Bitcoin's rise in 2025 is no longer merely a speculative play driven by market hot money, but rather, under the logic of the "stablecoin-US debt closed loop," it has become an important supporting tool for solving internal structural issues within the US financial system.
This also means that the future upper limit of Bitcoin's price will no longer be determined solely by market sentiment but will be deeply tied to the scale of US debt, the output of US dollar credit, and political maneuvering.
In the next six months, BTC is highly likely to open a new round of price discovery windows.
This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance and views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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