The US-Japan debt is interconnected, as Japan is currently the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, holding 1.13 trillion, which accounts for more than 3% of the total US debt. However, if Japan were to sell these bonds, it would mean a collapse of US Treasuries, as it would add a significant burden to an already tight liquidity situation.

Of course, Japan may not necessarily sell US Treasuries—on one hand, there would be pressure from the US, and on the other hand, selling now would incur significant losses.

Another possibility is borrowing dollars through swaps, but this means Japan would have to bear short-term high interest rates. From another perspective, this also implies a restart of dollar QE—what would this mean for risk markets, good or bad?

But regardless of the scenario, it seems there is a possibility of dollar depreciation.

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