I saw what Cat Uncle said, and I want to add that today's decline includes market expectations, which may be more related to the "retail sales" data rather than the PPI. This data is actually the best barometer of the "American economy" because retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending.

Currently, the previous value of this data is 1.5%, and the market expectation is zero. From the data over the past two years, it can be seen that declines have almost only occurred every December, primarily due to the exclusion of the repetitive impact of "holidays in December." Additionally, with the holidays and Black Friday in November leading to early purchases, the issue is not very significant.

This time, the expected zero growth means that consumption is neither expanding nor declining, which is a typical "stagnation period." In the U.S., consumption (especially personal consumption expenditure) accounts for about 70% of GDP, and stagnation in retail sales may indicate signs of economic slowdown.

In simpler terms, "expected to be zero" means the market believes that U.S. consumer momentum is declining but has not yet completely collapsed. This is a critical signal; if subsequent figures remain at zero or turn negative, it will raise concerns about an economic recession.

There is also a core retail figure that excludes automobiles, food, and energy, which may be even more important. Everyone is aware of the tariff issues with automobiles; the previous value was 0.6%, and the expectation is 0.3%, indicating that the growth in core retail is also slowing, which is not very favorable for the economy.

Additionally, I wonder if everyone remembers the CPI data released on Tuesday, which showed a decline in wages. This is also a marker of economic slowdown.

Of course, I am not representing a bearish outlook, nor am I suggesting that everyone short the market; rather, the current expectations for the economic situation are as such. If today's retail data unexpectedly rises, it will reduce risk-averse sentiment.

The expectation for PPI is actually a decline (year-on-year), and the month-on-month increase is normal, still due to tariff reasons. This thought process is similar to that of CPI, and there is no need for significant risk aversion. If risk aversion does occur, it is likely due to retail data.

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