Just about to talk about the CPI data, the current market estimates the annual CPI rate to be the same as last month, which is 2.4%. The data provided by the Cleveland Fed is also similar, so the broad CPI is likely still within this range. However, it should be noted that the inflation data for April actually only includes a small amount of new tariff data.

If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will not trigger any response from the Federal Reserve, as the official tariff details have not yet been finalized. If the CPI data shows a significant increase, it may be interpreted as a result of "tariff hoarding," for example, the monthly CPI rate is clearly rising, especially from deflation to inflation.

The main reason is the concern that tariffs have led many consumers to make purchases in advance, and the core annual and monthly rates follow the same reasoning.

So my personal view is that if the data is below expectations, it may be a slight positive, but it likely won't last long. Conversely, if it exceeds expectations, it may just be a slight negative, and it may not have a significant impact.

Therefore, U.S. stocks maintained an upward trend yesterday, showing no intention of risk aversion. In today's early trading, stock index futures also only experienced a very slight pullback, which should not be considered risk aversion. This is mainly because everyone is not too concerned about the current inflation; they all know that the data the Federal Reserve is looking at is actually the inflation after the tariffs, not the inflation before the tariffs.

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