Event Review ⚡️

Recently, the ETH market experienced a significant fluctuation, attracting market attention. Starting at 17:06, the ETH price dropped sharply within a few minutes, leading to some investors being liquidated and triggering panic selling that caused a rapid market decline. During the event, multiple leveraged positions (some using leverage as high as 25 times) quickly hit risk thresholds, with total liquidation amounts exceeding tens of millions of dollars, creating a tense market atmosphere. Meanwhile, news of changing macro policies intensified market risk aversion, causing ETH to oscillate near key support levels, resulting in a dual predicament of technical and fundamental challenges.

Timeline ⏱️

• 17:06: The market reported that ETH had lost the key support level of approximately $2450, with both long and short high-leverage positions facing liquidation risks, triggering forced liquidations and a rapid price decline.
• 17:06 – 17:12: In just 6 minutes, the ETH price plummeted from $2424 to $2316, a single drop of 4.43%.
• 17:06 – 17:28: Panic continued to escalate, with ETH further dropping from $2344 to $2291, a decline of about 2.26%.
• 17:48: Market sentiment showed slight stabilization, with the ETH price rebounding to $2337.71, but still hovering below the previous key support level, indicating short-term weakness.

Cause Analysis 🔍

Loss of Technical Support and Chain Reaction of Liquidations:
The support level around $2450 for ETH is particularly important, but recent technical indicators show significant fluctuations in this area. Some high-leverage positions were forced to liquidate due to failure to stop losses in time, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations that accelerated the price drop. According to liquidation statistics, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $10 million within the last hour, with long positions accounting for as much as 69%, highlighting the severity of market panic and the chain reaction of liquidations.

Macroeconomic Policy Uncertainty Triggering Risk Aversion:
Simultaneously, there were announcements regarding U.S. interest rate decisions, non-farm payroll data, and other macro policy news, causing investors to worry about the economic outlook. The market fears that global economic uncertainty will increase risks, leading institutional funds to become cautious and withdraw some positions from high-risk assets. Under the weight of multiple negative news, ETH faces dual pressures of technical breakdown and tight funding in the short term.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute candlestick data, the specific observations are as follows:

• The price was operating along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the market was previously in a strong upward trend, but this was quickly broken due to the liquidation event;
• Trading volume plummeted by 49.45%, while the trading volume on the short-term 10-day moving average rose by 109.83%, indicating increased short-term market activity, but overall risk remains high;
• The candlestick pattern formed a doji, representing market indecision, which may signal a potential trend reversal;
• The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bullish arrangement and continue to trend upward, indicating that the fundamentals remain bullish in the medium to short term, but the current overbought state (with RSI in the overbought zone) may trigger a short-term correction;
• Additionally, the EMA5/10/20/50/120 moving averages are perfectly aligned and sloping upward, indicating that the market still has upward momentum in the long term, but the current technical adjustment signals cannot be ignored.

Furthermore, in the last hour, there was a net outflow of $10 million in major funds, showing that institutions are gradually withdrawing some positions as risk aversion intensifies.

Market Outlook 🚀

In the short term, ETH still needs to seek stability near technical support. If the price continues to struggle to hold above $2450, it may face further selling pressure. Market sentiment is expected to ease as news becomes clearer, but the liquidation effect and ongoing macro uncertainty will prolong the consolidation period.
From a technical perspective, the bullish camp still exists, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement and an overall upward trend indicating that long-term upward potential remains. However, investors should focus on risk management at this stage, adjusting positions as necessary to avoid excessive leverage. In the coming period, closely monitoring policy dynamics and market fund flows will be crucial for capturing opportunities.

Overall, although ETH has experienced a round of significant fluctuations in the short term, its technical structure and market fundamentals still provide solid support from a long-term perspective. Rational risk management and precise market positioning will be key for investors to navigate through this turmoil.

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