Due to a series of concentrated news releases stimulated by the US-China contact negotiations, the recent Bitcoin reserve bill passed in New Hampshire, and CZ and SBF seeking a Trump pardon, BTB surged from 94,500 to above 97,500 this morning, approaching last week's high of 97,895.
From a technical perspective, the lowest point of the BTB pullback last night at 93,377 did not break below last week's low of 92,800. The bullish momentum that broke through the 89,000 level on April 22 with a long bullish candlestick remains strong. This morning's rise has extended the strong consolidation period of the daily candlestick cycle for Bitcoin.
The strong consolidation pattern over the past two weeks resembles an ascending triangle. The upper horizontal resistance is at 97,895; the lower support is at 92,800/93,377. This overall strong consolidation means that even if it breaks above the upper resistance of 97,895, the market trend will still fluctuate.
On the 4-hour candlestick cycle for BTB, the strong consolidation over the past two weeks has formed a clear support line, which is also the lower support line of the ascending triangle. Generally, such a support line on the 4-hour candlestick cycle tends to be broken, indicating that at some point in the near future, BTB is likely to fall below the support levels of 93,377 and 92,800, testing the platform support above 89,000 and 90,000.
There are still many variables in the US-China negotiations, which are factors affecting the market. The Federal Reserve meeting early tomorrow morning is unlikely to result in an interest rate cut, which may be postponed until June, and the market has already priced this in.
On the daily candlestick cycle for BTB, the 24-day moving average and the 120-day moving average resonate at 91,600, while the 288-day moving average is currently at 81,800. The distance between the 120-day moving average and the 288-day moving average has not narrowed to 5,000 or within 5,000-3,000, which means there is significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of Bitcoin's rise.
If Bitcoin's daily candlestick falls again to the middle of the range between the 120-day moving average and the 288-day moving average, it indicates that there is still a chance for a pullback to test 86,500. If it tests the 288-day moving average, Bitcoin may have a chance to pull back to 84,000 or lower. These opportunities could present relatively high-value entry points for the future market.
In trading, there is no need to feel anxious about the surge of Bitcoin this morning due to news stimuli, approaching above 97,000. It is better to patiently wait for the aforementioned relatively high-value mid-term entry opportunities.
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