Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold part of its assets again in the first quarter of 2025 in exchange for more cash, bringing its current cash amount to a historic high of $347.7 billion.

The giant whale has begun to raise larger cash reserves, and as a dead bull in dollars, Buffett has also stated that he can hold other (national) currencies. Regarding the recent volatility in risk markets, he expressed, "If Berkshire's stock price drops by 50%, I will see opportunity, not fear."

---This is where I start speaking, and it may not be correct---

The upcoming market is likely to be a mix of opportunities and risks; the economy may not be as good as we imagine, and maintaining high interest rates will inevitably increase the risk of recession.

Since 1945, there have only been two instances where the U.S. federal funds rate exceeded 4.5% without an economic recession. In 1966, although there was no recession, there was a noticeable economic decline. Only in 1984 did the economy pass through smoothly without being affected.

Historically, there have been nine instances where interest rates exceeded 4.5%, of which seven resulted in either a recession or significant economic downturn, and only once did it pass through smoothly. So, will this time be an exception?

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