Additionally, there is another important piece of data, which is not the PCE or core PCE, but rather wages. The data shows that the personal income month-on-month rate in the U.S. for March has decreased, while personal spending has increased. This indicates that wage levels are declining, but consumption expenditure is rising.

In simpler terms, people earned less in March but spent more, possibly due to inflation or tariffs.

Now the question arises: if the unemployment rate rises on Friday, and the number of new jobs is also low (< 150k), with the current value at 4.2% and the market expectation also at 4.2%, but my personal expectation is 4.3%, meaning the unemployment rate is rising. So, with the unemployment rate increasing, income decreasing, and consumption still rising, will it be "celebrating a funeral" or "mournfully handling a funeral"?

What does that mean?

"Celebrating a funeral" means that although the rising unemployment rate increases the probability of a U.S. economic recession, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in June, creating a "positive" outlook, treating bad data as good data.

"Mournfully handling a funeral" means that the rising unemployment rate increases the probability of economic recession, and even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it is merely a case of "closing the barn door after the horse has bolted." The market experiences trading recession and panic, and bad data is simply bad data.

Therefore, the focus now is on Friday's non-farm payroll data.

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