Today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) day. The CPI data for today can be interpreted in one of the following three ways:
Below expectations Above expectations In line with expectations
Lower CPI data = Dovish Fed / Bullish market As the future rate hike expectations are once again digested, we expect risk assets to rise.
A higher-than-expected market will rule out the possibility of a rate cut in the short term, and we will see a sell-off of all risk assets. Rising inflation is unfavorable for the market.
If it is in line with expectations, we will see a moderate market trend, and there may be a turbulent summer before the next data release. It is entirely possible for the market to experience 2-3 months of volatility and some false exits. Although the PPI exceeded expectations, it was revised down last month. So far, Powell's remarks have not contained any new content.
CPI will be released at 8:30 am US time.
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