Why did the price drop sharply from over 72,000 to around 60,000 before? And why is it believed that there won't be a sharp drop near 60,000? Before the halving in 2020, there were black swan events such as the epidemic and the circuit breaker of US stocks, which caused an epic drop on March 12.
The current environment is different. Before the halving, BTC hit a new high, and spot ETFs have been approved. The average price of ETFs led by BlackRock is 55,000, and ETFs are not for short-term trading. There has been a small outflow of ETFs in this round of pullback, with a total inflow of 268 million in Hong Kong ETFs, and it is expected that ETFs will be launched in Australia by the end of the year. BTC ETFs will be successively launched around the world. The shutdown price of Bitcoin miners is over 56,000 (new models are over 40,000). With the basic end of interest rate hikes, we are now waiting for the shoe to drop on interest rate cuts. In November 2024, there will be elections in more than 70 countries/regions around the world, which are macro factors.
After hitting a new high, US stocks are now pulling back, and the US dollar index has recently rebounded strongly. However, it has not returned after breaking through this week. If the US dollar index continues to pull back, there will still be good opportunities for investment products such as Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently does not have a topping pattern. There is still support at the bottom of the weekly candlestick, and the daily MA120 has not broken in terms of short-term bull and bear market judgment. The weekly candlestick has rebounded for the first time after touching the BOLL. Compared to the previous sharp drop after breaking through the middle rail before May 19, there are currently no signals, so there is no need to worry too much.
Bitcoin Bitcoin rebounded again to 60,630 after falling, and the bottom of the box was supported again. It broke through the 4-hour descending wedge, and yesterday it fell below and rebounded back. Yesterday's analysis also looked at this support level. If it falls again, we will also look for a rebound near 58,000 around the MA120.
There is heavy resistance to rebound upwards at 63,700—66,500—67,300. Personally, I still lean towards continuing to grind for 15-20 days, and I expect the market to start rising at the end of May or early June. Patience is needed to wait for the market to start rising!
Support: Resistance:
Ethereum Ethereum has not changed much and is around 3,000. It rebounded three times at 2,936 in the 4-hour candlestick, and the descending wedge broke down first and then recovered. Personally, I suggest entering a small position here. When Bitcoin was around 57,000, both Bitcoin and Ethereum (over 2,800) were entered. Patiently wait. For conservative operators, you can also wait for a breakthrough in the downward trend to enter.
Support: Resistance:
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