The battle for the US dollar, has the global currency war begun? Starting from March 2022, the interest rate has been raised to 5.5% by July 2023 after six consecutive meetings with unchanged interest rates, and the pace of asset-liability reduction has slowed since June. There is still no clear time for a rate cut. In history, the Federal Reserve has used the tide of the US dollar to harvest the world during 7 rounds of interest rate hikes. The market expects the first rate cut in September and another one in December. The US dollar index is crucial these days. If it continues to rise and return to the platform, the "big cake" (referring to Bitcoin) will continue to fall. If it rebounds under pressure, the "big cake" will have the momentum to rebound.

2024 is a big year for global elections. According to incomplete statistics, 76 countries/regions around the world will hold major elections. The US presidential election in November is particularly noteworthy, with the current President Biden and former President Trump competing. Both have formulated strategies for winning. Trump has stated that he will stop the US hostility towards cryptocurrencies and accept them. Cryptocurrency-related PACs have raised $102 million for the US election, with Coinbase and Ripple Labs as the main supporters.

Regardless of the supporters, they all need to spend money. With less than half a year until the election, assuming that if the "big cake" continues to fall to 50,000 or even 40,000, the adjustment period will be extended to at least 2-3 months, referencing the drop to 51,900. Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and others including BN, Kraken, etc., need to burn money. It's worth noting that FTX founder SBF donated $39.2 million in the US midterm elections, ranking fifth, and later became the second largest exchange with a surge in trading volume, but everyone knows what happened later. So, do you think they will dig deep to support, or profit from the rise? (Personal opinion) Different people have different views. Welcome to discuss.

"Big cake" If the rebound is weak under pressure, it will pull back. The lowest point in the morning dropped to 60,888, breaking the descending wedge pattern and failing to regain the rebound. The support level is now between 59,600 and 60,600. If it is breached again, it will need to retest the MA120 (58,000-68,600).

The daily chart has broken below the MA20, leaning bearish, with the MACD fast and slow lines crossing below the waterline, and the OBV indicator once again falling below the yellow line, with a decrease in volume. The 4-hour chart has broken below the Fibonacci 0.382, failing to regain the rebound, and now it's looking at 0.236 (59,600-60,473). If it is breached again, it will look near 58,000. The risk continues to increase, so caution is needed. Support: Resistance:

Ether For 2 consecutive days, the market is weak below the MA120. If it breaks below 2,800, it will test 2,500-2,600 again. The daily chart is near the Fibonacci 0.618. Although it is not yet at the bottom, personally, I feel that it is not far from the bottom. There are still 10 days until May 19th, and the market is still quite fearful. Good opportunities will have to wait until the end of the month or early next month. Support: Resistance:

If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate the bull and bear markets together!!!

The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, with real-time updates.

Focusing on candlestick technical research, winning global investment opportunities. Public account: Trading Master Fusu

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。