Today I replied to many private messages and WeChat messages from my friends. Most of them were asking about this issue. In the morning, I read the original English text and found that Grayscale had withdrawn the futures ETF for #Ethereum. This futures ETF was applied for in 2023, not two months ago as the spot ETF. From a conventional perspective, it can be inferred that Grayscale believes the significance of the futures ETF is no longer substantial. There are several implications here. Let's try to analyze them. Of course, these are all my subjective judgments and may not necessarily be correct:
Grayscale knows that the spot ETF for #ETH has been approved, so applying for futures would be a waste of time and effort.
Grayscale knows that the spot ETF for ETH has not been approved. However, since there is already a precedent for the approval of futures ETF, if Grayscale wants to focus on litigation, retaining the application for the spot ETF is sufficient, and applying for futures would be redundant.
Grayscale knows that the spot ETF for ETH will not be approved, and the SEC has categorized ETH as a security and is preparing to cancel all ETH futures ETFs. Therefore, even if Grayscale chooses to litigate with other companies, continuing to apply for futures is not meaningful.
Grayscale is not sure whether the spot ETF for ETH has been approved, but all bets are on the spot ETF. Since the futures have already been approved and the returns are not favorable, it is better to withdraw the application and not waste personnel and resources on the application.
Grayscale is not sure whether the spot ETF for ETH will be approved, but has already realized the reasons why ETH may not be approved. Therefore, they withdrew the futures ETF and are preparing to modify and reapply it as a stepping stone for the next application for the spot ETF.
Grayscale knows that the spot ETF for ETH will not be approved and knows that the SEC has a clear grasp of categorizing ETH as a security. Therefore, not only did they withdraw the application for the futures ETF, but they will also withdraw the application for the spot ETF in the near future.
In my personal judgment, the possibilities of 3 and 6 are the smallest, almost non-existent. Next is the relatively low possibility of 1, and then the possibilities of 2 and 4 are higher. Finally, the possibility of 5 is relatively the highest.
Once again, I declare that the above are purely my personal judgments and may not necessarily be factual.
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