It seems that everyone's mood was quite optimistic on Sunday, so I'll just pour some cold water on it. This doesn't mean I'm bearish, but the liquidity on Sunday was just too low. How low was it? In the past 24 hours, there were only over 52,500 #BTC addresses moving on-chain. This number is very similar to the early 2023 level, and it's at least half of what it was a month ago. Even last week, this number was 1.5 times higher. This indicates that more and more real BTC holders are unwilling to participate in turnover.
Even with BTC's price returning from $56,000 to over $64,000, liquidity is decreasing. When looking at the holding data, it feels familiar because during the recent month of fluctuation around $65,000, most BTC holders have been indifferent to the current or even lower prices. Some have asked if these investors will react to lower prices?
I don't know, but what I do know is that when BTC dropped to $56,000, there was no significant exodus of investors holding between $63,000 and $68,000. There wasn't even a turnover of over 10%! This may be one of the reasons why it couldn't drop below $56,000. After all, there are too few investors willing to exit, so even with poor liquidity and insufficient buying power, it still couldn't drop further. Therefore, it's very difficult to test investors' reactions to lower prices at the moment.
This is where the cold water comes in. Although it seems that BTC's price has stabilized around $64,000, returning to the level of a week ago, if someone didn't check the price for a week, they would find that their BTC has maintained the same profit as a week ago. However, there has already been passive selling of several hundred million dollars during this week. Why is this happening? It's either due to liquidity or sentiment.
The time has passed when people said that the current cryptocurrency market has nothing to do with traditional risk markets, and when they said that the cryptocurrency market has nothing to do with US macro policies. We need to admit that the attitude of the Federal Reserve is the barometer of the risk market. When the market's liquidity is lower, the fluctuations brought by this barometer are greater.
We are currently in such a stage because the market is excited about the expected actions of the Federal Reserve. But who knows when the market will change its attitude again due to new changes? This is not something that any one of us, or any "whale," can control, and even the Federal Reserve, the biggest "whale," finds it difficult to estimate its next move. So my attitude remains, "In price trends driven by sentiment, being bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls may not necessarily be correct." What you see may not be as accurate as the impact of a piece of news.
There are also some positive news at the moment. Although liquidity is still poor, with the rise in sentiment, the inventory of #BTC on exchanges has started to decrease again. Currently, there are less than 17,000 coins away from the lowest inventory in nearly six years. If this situation can continue until the opening of the US stock market next Monday, then BTC's price will be more stable.
The data has been updated, and the address is: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
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