"ETH will outperform 99% of the players in the ecology of speculative altcoins"
- ETH's ETF will definitely be approved!
After BTC's ETF is approved, it will be just like Binance listing ordi and then listing sats. This includes theories like the racial and conspiracy theories forwarded by the Four Seas Master yesterday, which have some truth, but I don't care at all.
Capital is profit-driven. If there is a demand for trading, it will be listed. This is no different from listing coins on exchanges. The world is just a stage, don't think too highly of it. Moreover, the world basically follows the major trends, not the demands of any particular group. If we have to mention a particular group, it will definitely be the one with the strongest consensus.
Some people might say, "Then why can't it be sol? Don't you have confidence in sol? Besides, sol is from the United States." I think sol is good, but it is just one of the challengers to ETH. ETH's ecosystem is still invincible at present. If sol can reach 500 and 1000 through AI and meme, that would be great. Don't always think about an "ETH killer." After all, Qin Shi Huang only unified six states, not the whole world. In the future, there will definitely be multiple chains coexisting, not an either-or situation.
- Most of the ecological tokens of ETH are vampires
I won't go through them one by one. Basically, tokens like arb op are all about whoever buys them is a fool. Let me give you a typical example, for instance, arb. This is a true L2 leader, but what does it have to do with you? It relies on your flesh and blood to support the secondary price.
Look at the upcoming unlock schedule for arb. The bull market has begun, and a massive release is also coming. A large number of tokens are unlocked every day. Look at the chart below:
Of course, this is how the crypto market has always been played. Isn't uni still just hot air? Didn't it also rise during its peak?
Of course, we, the retail investors who want to make money, are all lured by interests and have to gamble. It can truly be said, "People die for wealth, birds die for food."
However, what's different this time is that there are too many tokens with low circulation and high FDV. This was analyzed in detail yesterday.
There are hundreds of L2s, each with billions, tens of billions, or hundreds of billions in value.
Every new narrative: modularization, re-staking, AI, perpetual, chain abstraction, RWA, all have a bunch of projects below them, all worth tens of billions or hundreds of billions.
And these projects are all pushing for unlocks, but their business volume is pitifully small. I saw a discussion on Push before, but couldn't find the source, called "Ghost Town," which is very apt.
So, do you want to buy a house in a ghost town now? I suggest it's better to buy in a more prosperous place, like ETH.
- ENA is the only altcoin I still like for now
I've written a lot about the logic, including the early unlock (I might move on after a large unlock, unless there's a new story at that time), stablecoin interest, sufficient resources, etc. I won't go into detail, otherwise it will sound like a pump. If you're interested, go and research it yourself.
But overall, it's a meme packaged as a "value coin" with enough resources, a strong background, and high attention. In the medium to short term, I hope it will outperform ETH.
- The difference between ETH and other altcoins
ETH is not a matter of faith or just being more expensive means it's better. Compared to Bitcoin, it's also an altcoin. The result is that I have confidence in it and not in other hot air. What makes it special?
In fact, since the gas burning proposal, ETH has already become a deflationary model. Its total token supply may actually be relatively fixed and slowly decreasing.
At the same time, ETH's protocol income far exceeds that of other protocols, and there are so many L2s, such as base, which has been very strong recently. But ultimately, whether from the consensus level or the protocol income level, it all empowers ETH—big or small. Of course, there are many details to be calculated, but the market won't do that. As long as you know that all the small streams will flow into the big ocean, that's the general direction.
So, if you were to ask me to make a wish, I hope ETH crashes once, so I have the opportunity to buy more, after all, I still have some positions that haven't been fully filled.
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