24/04/08 The countdown to the halving of BTC is 12 days, and it is under pressure below the convergence triangle. Reduce positions and wait for opportunities to buy the dip!

Yesterday's analysis also reminded that there is an opportunity to fill the gap at 68000-69000 and then look at the minimum rebound strength to 68210, but currently the rebound strength is still weak. The risk of a false breakout of the convergence triangle is increasing before the halving. Are you waiting for medium and long-term layout opportunities?

International capital is heavily shorting the yen, and the yen is approaching its lowest point in nearly 34 years, close to Japan's Ministry of Finance's possible intervention line at 152. The degree of shorting the yen is comparable to that before the financial crisis. Other non-US currencies such as the South Korean won, Swiss franc, and Indonesian rupiah are also facing significant depreciation pressure. Analysts pointed out that the main reason behind this may be the continued strength of the US dollar and the sharp drop in expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. I don't know if you still remember (24/03/22 After the strong rebound of BTC, the potential head and shoulders bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index is facing a reversal and still needs to be cautious!) This article mentioned this point beautifully, that the United States is taking advantage of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve to cause trouble before harvesting another wave, and now we see the news.

The recent increase in the price of gold has attracted the attention of domestic consumers and investors, and the mainland has increased its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months. However, ordinary consumers' purchases have been restricted, so let's buy BTC. With a longer time period, the return on digital gold will definitely be higher than that of gold.

Bitcoin Bitcoin's false breakout of the convergence triangle has formed a strong sell signal on the daily chart. On the 8th, we reminded to reduce positions on rallies, wait for opportunities to buy the dip, and look at the high points in 2017, 2019, and 2020-2021, all of which had the same triangular pattern and eventually fell back. I didn't say it's time to turn bearish now. I have always been bullish, but at the current stage, the risks outweigh the opportunities, so it's better to avoid them.

The daily chart has formed a new triangular pattern, and the price is oscillating within the previous range of 68210-72797. There is still support at the bottom of the range for now. If it falls below, it will go to around 66000, and further down, it will target 60000. The MACD has not turned upward from the bottom divergence to above the zero axis, the fast and slow lines are moving downward, the OBV indicator's yellow line has turned downward, and the RSI indicator has touched the overbought zone and turned downward. We previously drew a perfect bullish bat pattern, which is to see 53500, which is also our anticipated buying opportunity near 60000, and also near 53500. Support: Resistance:

Ethereum Ethereum also did not bring too many surprises to everyone. After piercing through 3678, it fell back to re-enter the triangular pattern. The high point is limited, and it can only continue to oscillate within the triangle or test the support at 3000-3200 again. The OBV indicator rebounded, but the yellow line shows that funds are still flowing out. The MACD has returned above the zero axis, so be cautious about being brought down by Bitcoin. On the weekly chart, there is still room for a drop in the naked K line. Remember this point: logically, for Ethereum to rebound, Bitcoin must make a new high to resolve the crisis. The altcoin rebound market has not completely finished, so grasp the altcoin well. Support: Resistance:

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