Analysis and Discussion of the Market 4.09: What doesn't kill you will only make you stronger!

CN
1 year ago

First, let's take a look at a major piece of news:

According to the "Securities Times," several top fund companies are using their Hong Kong subsidiaries to lay out Bitcoin ETFs. The reporter learned in an interview that multiple institutions, including the Hong Kong subsidiaries of ChinaAMC and E Fund, are applying for and laying out Bitcoin ETFs. Among them, the product applied for by ChinaAMC to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is a Bitcoin spot ETF. In addition, the Hong Kong subsidiary of Huaxia Fund recently reached a cooperation agreement with a Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF custodian. Industry insiders expect that the relevant Bitcoin ETF applications may land as early as the second quarter of this year.

From the above news, it can be seen that Hong Kong, as an international financial center in Asia, a window connecting China to the outside world, the only region in China where trading in encrypted digital currencies is legalized, and a bridgehead, large domestic institutions are actively laying out the digital currency ETF track. This confirms a well-known saying online: "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger!"

The detailed implementation rules for large fund companies' Bitcoin spot ETFs have not been announced yet. It is still uncertain whether there will be an investment threshold or whether mainland investors can directly participate. The impact on the market is still to be observed, but in any case, it is undoubtedly a great benefit for the currency circle, bringing a continuous source of traditional funds to the currency circle and raising higher expectations for this bull market.

Returning to the market situation, yesterday morning's article mentioned that Bitcoin was about to turn around. Combining the judgment of the upward probability based on the daily MACD pattern, it was unexpected that within less than a day, Bitcoin chose to break through strongly, reaching a high of 72800, just a step away from the peak. Currently, the strength of the upward breakthrough is still considerable, and the breakthrough of the historical high is basically a certainty. However, the reminder remains the same: the key is the strength of the breakthrough of the historical high, and insufficient strength will trigger a larger-scale pullback. For us, it is slowly approaching a critical moment, paying special attention to signals of a market reversal. This account will make reminders to the community at the first time during critical moments.

In the 4-hour chart above, the third segment of the 4-hour center gives a deduction of the buy point leaving the segment internally. When there is a divergence or consolidation divergence sell point at this level, it should be mainly reduced gradually in batches. It is expected that after breaking the new high, there will be a wave of bullish sentiment driving the market to rise and extend. Everything is based on the structure, and one should not be blindly chasing highs under the influence of FOMO sentiment.

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